May I very briefly recap (three paragraphs) on what I think
evolutionary economics is saying to us today?
-----
1. It says that new consumer goods throughout the whole course of our
economic history have been bought mainly for reasons of status, not need.
However, as the repertoire of bought goods rises, we become entrapped in
the way of life that they have moulded;
2. The present sort of industrial economy which necessitates successive
chain-reactions of consumer spending and investment will be brought to an
end when those who initiate the consumption process (the trend-setting
middle-class with sufficient disposable income) have no more time left in
which to use new goods. The only goods they will buy in the coming years
are those which are fashionable replacements/embellishments of existing
goods, goods or services which cannibalise on the sales of other existing
goods, and goods and services which do not require any additional and
regular use of time;
3. The existing industrial economy, being totally dependent on very cheap
fossil fuels, will gradually be brought to an end unless some miraculous
new energy technology is invented (none of the present proposals being
adequate either in volume or delivery characteristics).
-----
Which of the two constraints, 2. or 3. will cut in first I cannot say,
though I would put my money on 2. The constraints of energy supply is
likely to become serious only very gradually -- over perhaps a century --
while 2. could have sudden effects at some critical point as sufficient
numbers of intelligent people start withdrawing their inputs from the
present system -- inputs on which the rest are increasingly
dependant.
Another way of expressing the last sentence is to say that many people
will start to search for a better work-life balance or, using the present
fashionable term, they will downshift.
I downshifted about 25 years ago after my children had become
independent, though for different reasons than most of those described in
the article below. Also -- quite differently -- I moved from a gentle
pace of working to a very hectic, though very interesting, one. Although
I was earning a very good salary before downshifting I was, quite simply,
bored with my working life as a manager in a multinational corporation
(Massey-Ferguson) because it had no challenges. Instead, I turned to
setting up an organisation (Jobs for Coventry Foundation) to train young
unemployed people in my home town. Like most of those people below who
downshifted, I took a large drop in earnings and it took a long time --
maybe a couple of years -- to finally make the adjustment.
If I were a right-wing think-tank, or a politician of senior rank
(left-wing or right-wing) in a developed country I would be exceedingly
worried by the following article and I would want to commission some
deeper investigation of what seems to be some serious alienation going on
here.
Keith Hudson
<<<<
DESIRE TO TRADE PRESSURE FOR PEACE GROWS
Anna Fifield
The quest for a better work-life balance might be more successful than
estimated. A study published yesterday found a quarter of people had
"downshifted" their jobs over the past decade.
Exemplified by the high-profile resignations of Martha Lane Fox, chief
executive of lastminute.com until last week, and Alan Milburn, the former
health secretary, a "downshifter" is someone who has changed to
a lower-paying job, reduced their work hours or quit work to study or
stay at home. Clive Hamilton, executive director of the Australia
Institute, a Canberra-based think-tank and a visiting scholar at
Cambridge University, found 25 per cent of those surveyed had downshifted
in the past decade, and a quarter of those had done so in the past
year.
Even more remarkably, they had taken an average pay cut of 40 per cent.
"I think it reflects the intensification of work and life pressures,
and greater pressures to earn more and consume more and get into
debt," Mr Hamilton said. "This is a reaction to the
over-consumption that has become so dominant in British life. More and
more people are saying they want to buy back more time."
In a survey of 1,071 people aged 30-59 selected at random, carried out by
the British Market Research Bureau, 270 said they had made a long-term
decision to change their life in a way that involved earning less. To
provide a more representative picture the study excluded people who had
also started their own business, refused a promotion or taken time off
after having a baby. The proportion would rise to 30 per cent if they
were included.
Women were slightly more likely to downshift than men -- 27 per cent
compared with 23 per cent. A third said a desire to spend more time with
their families was their motivation, while nearly a fifth were searching
for more control and personal fulfilment.
Mr Hamilton said "The survey results immediately dispel the
widespread myth that downshifting means selling up in the city and
shifting to the countryside to live a life closer to nature. "While
the rural idyll is the route chosen by a few downshifters, the phenomenon
is predominantly a suburban one with the downshifter more likely to be
found next door rather than in Cornwall."
It also apparently dispelled the myth that downshifting is the
prerogative of middle-aged, wealthier people who can afford to take the
risk. "It is apparent that downshifters are spread fairly evenly
across the social grades," Mr Hamilton said, although there was a
slightly higher proportion among top earners.
While the survey's findings seem extraordinary, Mr Hamilton said they
were in line with the 23 per cent found to have downshifted in a similar
study he carried out in Australia last year. However, it is much higher
than a similar survey published by Datamonitor, the market analyst, last
month, which found that the number of downshifters had risen from 1.7m in
1997 to 2.6m last year.
Financial Times -- 25 November 2003
>>>>
Keith Hudson, Bath, England,
<www.evolutionary-economics.org>
- Re: [Futurework] Downshifting to a better work-life ... Keith Hudson
- Re: [Futurework] Downshifting to a better work-... Ed Weick
- RE: [Futurework] Downshifting to a better w... Harry Pollard
- Re: [Futurework] Downshifting to a better work-... Ed Weick
- RE: [Futurework] Downshifting to a better w... Harry Pollard
- RE: [Futurework] Downshifting to a better work-... Cordell . Arthur
- Re: [Futurework] Downshifting to a better work-... Ed Weick
- Re: [Futurework] Downshifting to a better w... Brad McCormick, Ed.D.
- RE: [Futurework] Downshifting to a better work-... Cordell . Arthur
- RE: [Futurework] Downshifting to a better w... Harry Pollard