4/29/2002 2:18:44 PM, Donald Keenan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

>What's your guessitimation for the phasing out of 32-bit platforms? How 
>far off are we?

That's hard to say.  64-bit RISC computing has been a reality for over 10 years now,
thanks to DEC, and there have been 64-bit network operating systems (Windows NT, OSF/1,
and VMS) for almost as long.  Intel's IA-64 platform isn't nearly as mature, but it's 
out
there, and with it are 64-bit versions of Windows NT and Windows XP (why anyone would 
want
to spend $6000 on a workstation, and then run Windows XP on it is anybody's guess).
But the current stage of processor evolution is different, as it represents the 
entrance of
64-bit computing into the home user consumer market.  Here's how I interpret the way 
things
are likely to go:

Recently, AMD's (now former) CEO, W. J. Sanders III, testified in Microsoft's defense 
in the
DOJ trial.  Days later, Microsoft announced their support for AMD's x86-64 platform, 
which
will soon compete with IA-64.  I believe x86-64 to be the superior architecture, but
that's not enough to take away the slimey impression that Sander's testimony made on 
me.
It doesn't take Holmes and Watson to read between the lines here.  I think that x86-64
is going to dominate the consumer 64-bit RISC PC market.  AMD has been pretty open with
their "roadmap", and it looks promising--especially the notion of SMP on a single chip.

I'm hoping that Apple will see fit to port coming generations of OS X and OS X Server 
to
x86-64, and I certainly don't think that that's beyond the realm of plausibility.
As virtually everyone here is probably aware, Apple tends to be rather secretive about
their forthcoming technology, but rest assured that they've been developing the 64-bit
successor to the PPC platform for a long time.  I'm excited to see what that will be,
even though it, when compared to PPC, probably won't represent as big of a leap as 
x86-64
compared to current x86 architecture (since x86 is such an old CISC platform).

If Apple follows AMD's lead, they'll maintain a certain degree of backwards 
compatibility
with current 32-bit architecture.  Since backwards compatibility will be a necessity 
for
most people when transitioning to the new platform, I'd say that we can safely take 
that
much for granted.  So how long will the phasing-out period last?  If by "phasing out" 
you
mean how long will they be supported by most major commercial software publishers and 
hardware
manufacturers, then I'd guess a max of 2-3 years from the time that a major vendor 
(Dell,
HP-Compaq, Gateway) starts distributing it.  Since AMD's "Hammer" is slated for a 
fourth
quarter 2002 release, I think that vendors could be selling them by xmas if AMD's on
schedule.



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