On Nov 24, 2008, at 3:44 PM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

> Texas plays Texas A&M (4-7) on Thanksgiving, a game that will weigh  
> down the Longhorns' strength of schedule—a vital part of the  
> computer ratings—and won't give voters much reason to move them up.

This is an interesting misunderstanding.

Under the old-BCS formula, it mattered whether a team was #2 or #3 in  
the polls, as a #2 received a certain fixed score, #3 a different  
score, and so on down the line.

In the current formula, a teams actual points in the poll by 2,850 -  
representing the best possible score in the Harris Poll (and 1,525 in  
the USA Today).

So, if a few voters switch and UT and Texas flip-flop in their  
positions, it won't make a hill of beans difference; 2,598 divided by  
2,850 and 2,577 divided by 2,850 are essentially the same number.

Only if Oklahoma makes a move in the computers will it matter. As the  
computers treat its 0 point loss to Texas the same as a 1 point loss,  
and its 40+ point victory over Texas Tech the same as a 1 point  
victory, it is not clear that Oklahoma will make up the ground that  
it needs. I would even call it unlikely.

For those that assume that strength of schedule will vault Oklahoma,  
it is worth looking at some of the individual computer polls week by  
week. UF's strength has been as high as #9th in SOS and as low at  
20th in the last five weeks in the Anderson/Hester poll, yet its  
score has barely changed week to week (.783 currently with the #20th  
SOS, and a score of .784 on Nov.2nd when we had the #9 SOS).

FWIW, we will never overcome Utah in that computer ranking, and that  
extra spot between us and OK and Texas will create problems.

-Zeb


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