[gatortalk] Early take on the Game

[ken]

Okay, we have a month of talking heads either praising us to high heaven or bashing us to levels never seen before.  So I wanted to put my .02c in early.

I have heard a lot of talk about how Florida has to be concerned about being overconfident - the 2006 OSU syndrome if you will.  Early on, it seems to be the conventional wisdom that everyone will pick the Gators as Timmy has promised to bring us to the promised land and OU won't know what hit them after seeing an SEC caliber defense.

As the weeks play out, I think you will start to see a split as people begin to realize this is going to be a close match.  The big question is who will prevail, the high flying OU offense or the hard hitting UF defense.

Here is the way I look at this game, from the time OU played Texas, they have averaged 57 points per game and have given up, 31 points per game.  UF on the otherhand has scored an average of 43 points per game and surrendered 15 to the opponents since the Ol Miss game. So looking at it very conservatively through the stretch that each team has been 'hot', it wouldn't be a bold prediction to think that UF could hold OU to one less TD per game and it wouldn't be bold to predict UF could score 1 more TD on OU than average, essentially making a tie.

The argument from our side is that we have played against tough SEC defenses, while the argument from the OU side is that the D is tough because the offenses in the SEC suck. The defenses we played rank on average 42nd in scoring defense and 28th in yards allowed.  OU has faced defenses with average ranking of 72 and 78 respectively.  The offenses we faced have an average ranking of 63 and OU has faced the average offense ranking of 33.  If you break it down to just the out of conference games and eliminate the conference altogether you get - UF has faced offenses ranked 27, 47 and 68 for an average of 47, OU has faced OoC offenses ranked 20, 51 & 118 for an average of 63.  UF has faced OoC Defenses ranked 32, 56 and 72 for an average 53, and OU has faced defenses ranked 2, 26 & 117 for an average 48.  Against OoC opponents UF's average score is 49-12, and OUs average score is 50-13.  Pretty darn close! (And BTW, I eliminated the Citadel and Chattanooga from the calcs)

The average defense ranking in the SEC is 38, the average in the Big12 is 80. The average offense in the SEC is ranked 70th and the Big 12 is 31st.  For what it's worth, UF had an easier conference schedule than OU in that UF faced opponents with a lower than average offense ranking and a lower than average defense ranking, OU in the B12 was the opposite.

For all the Offense and Defense rankings, I looked at scoring offense and points scored against for defense unless otherwise noted.

Not sure what all this means yet, other than I don't think either team has a great case to make that says we are so superior.  I think this game will come down to tackling.  I have watched about 5 OU games this year and much of their yardage comes from missed tackles.  If we can make those plays and keep them to 5-10 yard gains and make them drive the field, we will a) force some turnovers, b) minimize their posessions and c)either stop some of their drives or hold them to field goals.  I think their D is good enough to keep us in check, but not totally stop us and can see a score in the 35-28 range.  Hoping it is the good guys on the high end...




Ken K.
MNGator
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