[gatortalk] Re: Leaving Early? What is really the best?

[keith]

I don't think they have the height, weight, and strength to run Harvin plays. 

 

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: [gatortalk] Re: Leaving Early? What is really the best?
From: "Oliver Barry" <oba...@haloprop.com>
Date: Thu, January 15, 2009 5:44 pm
To: <Gatortalk@googlegroups.com>

Hmm…  I kind of think Harvin is the most expendable.  Tebow is the Force.  Spikes is the leader of the defense, leadership means so much.  But we have a lot of speedy tailbacks who are just freshmen!!  Wait until they become juniors and try them running Harvin plays.

 

Oliver Barry, CRS, GRI

Real Estate Broker

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From: Gatortalk@googlegroups.com [mailto:Gatortalk@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of ke...@baldwinnc.com
Sent: Thursday, January 15, 2009 3:55 PM
To: Gatortalk@googlegroups.com
Subject: [gatortalk] Re: Leaving Early? What is really the best?

 

I'm looking at it more like - who does the team need to come back the most?

 

1. Tebow.  I think there is a huge drop off from Tebow to Brantley

 

2. Harvin.  We have tried a bunch of other guys to run the Harvin plays - and no one is close.  Most other guys are stuffed for a loss - Harvin runs the same play and usually gets 10 or 15 yards.

 

3. Spikes.  Although Spikes is exceptional at LB - I hear that the backups are also exceptional.  Condsidering that the whole Defense comes back - other than Spikes - I think the defense would be better. 

 

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: [gatortalk] Leaving Early? What is really the best?
From: Jerry Belloit <bell...@clarion.edu>
Date: Thu, January 15, 2009 4:13 pm
To: Gatortalk@googlegroups.com

I posted this on Gatorcountry and given the news that Percy is going and Brandon is staying, I thought you all might want to chime in.

 

With Tim Tebow, Brandon Spikes, and Percy Harvin considering or having considered leaving early, I thought that it might be a good idea to conceptually discuss the generic issue of leaving early and look at it realistically. I want to look at each of the three and weigh the pros and cons of leaving early for the NFL. It is easy to for we armchair quarterbacks to say that that people should stay in college because we want to have them back so that we have a better team. At the same time, there are very few of us that would have personally turned down that kind of money when we were juniors even if was only a few hundred thousand dollars. Finally all three of these players face the possibility of having a career-ending or limiting inury by staying. I am assuming that each of them can borrow or get enough money to insure themselves against that risk if they stay. To the extent that this assumption is not a good one, then leaving early becomes a much more attractive option.

I will begin with Tim. From what I could read, it seems that Tim would have been a second or third round draft pick if he would have gone out this year. The knock on Tim is that his release is slow and that he does not have much experience taking the ball under center. The championship game did little to discourage the release issue when he threw the long wide out that was intercepted. In Tim's case, it would seem that another year in college might give him and the coaches time to quicken his release as well as they might give him some plays under center. (I admit that I really am not sure how being under center allows the QB to see the defenses better, but since it is so widely used, I will defer to those who understand it better.) Given the salary difference by rounds, it is possible that if Tim can improve on his throwing mechanics and gain some under center experience, he may well improve his draft status by one or two rounds. Thus his decision has some economic logic. The foregone income may well be made up quickly by improving a round in the draft.

Brandon Spikes was projected a late first or early second round pick. It seems to me that remaining another year would only marginally improve his draft position as far as his potential skill growth is concerned. Here is where it becomes a more difficult analysis. His draft position is also influenced by the other people in the draft. If the draft competition is greater this year than next, his best economic result may be to wait. However, if the competition is less this year, his best economic option would be to come out now.

If I were looking at Percy Harvin right now, I would be concerned with his historic injury record. I would be afraid that he would be continually hurt. As great of a player as he is, he cannot help my team if he is hurt. Further, in the NFL, he may more likely be hurt since the quality of defenses is greater. Can you imagine Percy being hit by Ray Lewis? In Percy's case, he may well be best served by remaining an additional year IF HE CAN BE HEALTHY THE WHOLE YEAR.

What do you think?

 

P.S.  I wonder if Percy talked with Brandon before he made is final decision.  I wonder if Percy was pressured to have all three come back?

 

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