On Dec 3, 2009, at 7:41 AM, Juno Gator posted:

> "If 50 percent of our SuperPrep All Americans have excellent  
> careers, then I consider those rankings a huge success," Wallace  
> said. "It's very unusual for all these people to turn out so well."

This is a very educational quote.

Rating recruits is a percentage game, not an absolute one.

If 50% is a good success rate, then 1 out of very 2 top recruits  
doesn't amount to much.

So, the articles that appear like mushrooms every year in February  
about top recruits that turn out to be busts prove nothing. (I give  
extra points if the article mentions Bobby Sabelhaus).

Michael Jordan's lifetime shooting percentage was 49.7%. Ted  
Williams' batting average was 34.4% and never higher than 40.7%.

A 50% success rate doesn't mean that a recruiting service isn't doing  
a good job - it might be doing a great job. If our coaches can beat  
that average with out own recruits, then they are doing an  
exceptional job of both evaluating talent, and managing it while in  
school.

-Zeb

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