I hope and pray he is correct. I respect Dave's opinion. I will point out the caveat that he includes about the oil being pulled around to the east coast. I still think that the impact is greater than people may realize. Tourism has a huge multiplier in this state. From everything I am reading, tourism is significantly down in Panhandle area. To some extent, this is being offset a little by clean-up expenditures. However, this type of spending has a very low multiplier effect so that its impact is nowhere near that of tourism. From a state government perspective, clean-up spending provides relatively little state revenue. The thing to tract is gas and hotel tax revenues.
Jerry From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of [email protected] Sent: Friday, July 16, 2010 2:04 AM To: Gatortalk Subject: [gatortalk] Re: [gatornews] [SUN]: 7/15 12:14 --- "THE CHALKBOARD" --- UF prof: Spill unlikely to cause another recession [Crabbe] Doc, I believe this article corroborates my earlier assurances that Florida's diverse economy would weather the Gulf oil spill and that UF's budget would be funded adequately. Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T _____ From: Shane Ford <[email protected]> Sender: [email protected] Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2010 12:50:43 -0500 To: <[email protected]> ReplyTo: [email protected] Subject: [gatornews] [SUN]: 7/15 12:14 --- "THE CHALKBOARD" --- UF prof: Spill unlikely to cause another recession [Crabbe] <http://www.gainesville.com/global/graphics/blogs/gs/hdr/The+Chalkboard.gif> July 15th, 2010 12:14pm <http://chalkboard.blogs.gainesville.com/2010/07/uf-prof-spill-unlikely-to-c ause-another-recession/> UF prof: Spill unlikely to cause another recession by Nathan Crabbe <http://chalkboard.blogs.gainesville.com/author/crabbe/> (Gainesville SUN) University of Florida economist David Denslow said there's some good news for the state economy in the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. With the spill's impact so far limited to parts of the Panhandle, Denslow said the disaster is likely affecting just $2 billion of the state's $700 billion economy. It seems unlikely at this point that the spill will cause the state to go into a double-dip recession, he said. "It hasn't put us into a double-dip yet and unless things get significantly worse, it won't," he said. But Denslow's prediction comes with a big "if." So far conditions have kept the spill out of currents <http://www.gainesville.com/article/20100708/ARTICLES/7081024> that would send oil through the Florida Keys and up the East Coast. If those conditions change and Miami starts seeing oil on its beaches, Denslow said the effect on the state economy could be devastating. He said the country as a whole is already grappling with an economic slowdown caused by factors such as stimulus funding running out and the Greek economic crisis. If the spill hurts the housing market and tourism in South Florida, he said, it could have an economic impact felt by the rest of the state. "When you're not recovering too fast, anything hurts," he said. -- GATORS: ONE VOICE ON SATURDAY - NO VOICE ON SUNDAY! 1996 National Football Champions | 2006 National Basketball Champions 2006 National Football Champions | 2007 National Basketball Champions 2008 National Football Champions | Three Heisman Trophy winners: Steve Spurrier (1966), Danny Wuerffel (1996), Tim Tebow (2007) - Visit our website at www.gatornet.us -- GATORS: ONE VOICE ON SATURDAY - NO VOICE ON SUNDAY! 1996 National Football Champions | 2006 National Basketball Champions 2006 National Football Champions | 2007 National Basketball Champions 2008 National Football Champions | Three Heisman Trophy winners: Steve Spurrier (1966), Danny Wuerffel (1996), Tim Tebow (2007) - Visit our website at www.gatornet.us -- GATORS: ONE VOICE ON SATURDAY - NO VOICE ON SUNDAY! 1996 National Football Champions | 2006 National Basketball Champions 2006 National Football Champions | 2007 National Basketball Champions 2008 National Football Champions | Three Heisman Trophy winners: Steve Spurrier (1966), Danny Wuerffel (1996), Tim Tebow (2007) - Visit our website at www.gatornet.us
