Fun to play with Kenpom. Notice the luck factor for UF (-.106).
That is almost the worst in the country; 337th worst out of 347 teams. With some normal breaks, we'd be the dominant team in the country right now. -Zeb On Mar 20, 2013, at 9:55 AM, Helen Huntley wrote: > > he best way to profit off your NCAA tournament bracket is not, in fact, > picking a bunch of round-of-64 upsets and then buying a round at the bar when > one just so happens to hit. It's to nail the national champion. > > The unexpected darling of tempo-free statisticians this year is Florida, the > No. 3 seed in the South Region. A formula published on kenpom.com, the > closest thing to a Bible for hoops nerds, gives the Gators a 21% chance of > winning the tournament, the best of any team. (We should mention that basic > arithmetic implies that Florida would lose 79% of the time, too.) Also going > with the Gators is John Ezekowitz, the Harvard senior whose round-of-64 > upsets were published Tuesday. His system for forecasting the entire bracket > uses survival analysis, a method for predicting failure in systems, and gives > Florida a 15.7% chance of winning the whole thing, also the best of any team. > > In WSJ's Blindfold Bracket competition, which allows users to select teams > without knowing their true identities, 40% of participants have ended up with > Indiana as the national champion. But the unbiased approach also likes > Florida, the second-most popular pick at 12%. > > —Ben Cohen > > -- > Helen Huntley > (727) 823-3801 > www.helenhuntley.com > > -- > -- > GATORS: ONE VOICE ON SATURDAY - NO VOICE ON SUNDAY! > 1996 National Football Champions | 2006 National Basketball Champions > 2006 National Football Champions | 2007 National Basketball Champions > 2008 National Football Champions | > Three Heisman Trophy winners: Steve Spurrier (1966), Danny Wuerffel (1996), > Tim Tebow (2007) - Visit our website at www.gatornet.us > --- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "GatorNews" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. > > -- -- GATORS: ONE VOICE ON SATURDAY - NO VOICE ON SUNDAY! 1996 National Football Champions | 2006 National Basketball Champions 2006 National Football Champions | 2007 National Basketball Champions 2008 National Football Champions | Three Heisman Trophy winners: Steve Spurrier (1966), Danny Wuerffel (1996), Tim Tebow (2007) - Visit our website at www.gatornet.us --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "GatorTalk" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
