https://english.pravda.ru/world/152686-putin_ukraine/



Author`s name Andrey Mihayloff
<https://english.pravda.ru/author/mihayloff_andrey/>

 30.06.2022 18:43
Putin's Ukraine game will reformat Eurasia and deprive NATO of dominance

World  <https://english.pravda.ru/world/>» Europe
<https://english.pravda.ru/world/europe/>

One of the main topics of the NATO summit, which started in Madrid on June
28, is Ukraine. According to former US Navy officer and former Deputy
Undersecretary of the Navy Seth Cropsey, the participants in the meeting
should have thought about the consequences of Kyiv's defeat in the conflict
with Russia, since "it would be a disaster" for them.

"Any peace that secures Russian assent will be tantamount to Russian
victory. Russian victory will divide and in time destroy the Atlantic
Alliance, severely weakening the United States' long-term position in
Eurasia,” Cropsey wrote in an article
<https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/why-us-nato-cant-let-russia-win/> for *Asia
Times*.

The founder of the Yorktown Institute believes, however, that Russian
President Putin did not have "grandiose ambitions vis-a-vis NATO" when he
started the operation in Ukraine. Yet, "Russian victory would fundamentally
transform the Eurasian order," Cropsey wrote.
The unity of the West jeopardised

Cropsey states that despite the fact that NATO and its global partners
supply arms to Ukraine and train the Ukrainian military how to use them,
the Ukrainians admit that *the West will not fight Russia directly.*

It appears that the Western coalition is splitting. France, Italy and
Germany are the weakest links. They provide military support, but:

   - Emmanuel Macron has already made it clear that he wants to "stop the
   war without humiliating Russia";
   - Olaf Scholz, despite increasing his government's defense spending,
   allowed only token supplies;
   - Italy's proposed four-paragraph peace plan reflects the ruling
   coalition's deep desire to end the conflict.

In addition, Germany and Italy have jointly opened ruble accounts for the
purchase of Russian natural gas. Even European heavyweights still buy
Russian petrochemical products, albeit it was rebranded as products from
Latvia or some other non-oil-producing country.

According to Cropsey, Ukraine's morale is based on the belief that the West
supports Kyiv:

"If the West backs out, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky must
capitulate."
Why the West does not want Kyiv to sign peace with Moscow

"If Putin simply grinds through Ukraine despite NATO's best efforts, the
Atlantic Alliance can survive and resist. But if Ukraine's defeat stems
from insufficient NATO support or, worse, Western European pressure on
Ukraine to accept a crippling peace, Eastern European NATO will crumble,"
the author of the article wrote.

According to Seth Cropsey:

   - Poland, Romania and Bulgaria will experience outbursts of far-right
   activities against NATO.
   - Serbia will benefit by seeking to takeover of the Serbian part of
   Bosnia.
   - The Balkan states will be defenseless without NATO support.
   - Sweden and Finland will be isolated and vulnerable despite their
   membership in the Atlantic Alliance.

"Western European NATO demanding concessions from Ukraine for peace would
destroy the Atlantic Alliance. At a minimum, it would roll back NATO to its
1991 borders, potentially including the Czech Republic and "eastern”
Germany," the retired US official concludes.

The collapse of the European NATO system will trigger a *similar
transformation in the Middle East*. NATO will eventually give up its
Eurasian dominance to the coalition of Russia, China and Iran. The Taiwan
dispute will be resolved. Japan and Australia will then realize that the
game was over. So will India. Perhaps they will unite with Russia and put
an end to US interests in Asia.

Editor: Dmitry Sudakov <https://english.pravda.ru/author/sudakov_dmitry/>

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