Kata orang, dulu di Jawa, menggugurkan kandungan waktu baru mulai hamil, dilakukan dengan makan nanas muda.
Op do 28 jul. 2022 om 10:57 schreef Sunny ambon <[email protected]>: > > https://www.indiaspend.com/indiaspend-interviews/india-will-have-largest-population-but-data-show-the-growth-is-slowing-826826 > > > > > India Will Have Largest Population But Data Show The Growth Is Slowing The > United Nations projects that India's total population will surpass China's > much sooner than expected, but even so, data show that India's population > is actually declining, says Poonam Muttreja of the Population Foundation of > India > > ByGovindraj Ethiraj <https://www.indiaspend.com/author/govindraj-ethiraj>|19 > July, 2022 > > ยท > > *Mumbai**: "What could women do if they wanted fewer children? They were > opting for, amongst other things, abortion," says Poonam > Muttreja, executive director of the **Population Foundation of India* > <https://populationfoundation.in/pfi-team/#Team6>*. "Abortion rates as a * > *proxy* > <https://www.indiaspend.com/why-10-million-indian-women-secretly-undergo-abortions-every-year-92682>* > for > contraception are unacceptably high in India."* > > *Muttreja is talking of Indian women who do not have access to > contraception, and are instead forced to abort unwanted pregnancies as a > way of family planning, which is important in light of the United Nations' > World Population Report 2022 that has **forecast* > <https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf#page=10>* > that > India will surpass China in terms of total population in 2023, four years > ahead of the previous UN **forecast* > <https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/files/documents/2020/Jan/wpp2019_highlights.pdf#page=18>* > of > 2027.* > > *India will thus become the most populous country next year and is > expected to **reach* > <https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/356>* a total > population of 1.5 billion by 2030 and 1.66 billion by 2050, the UN said. To > discuss the social implications, we spoke with Muttreja, who has a Master's > in Public Administration from Harvard University, USA and has spent over 40 > years in various roles in India's development sector.* > > *Even if all these millions of young people have just one child, India's > population is going to grow, says Muttreja. But India did not need a UN > report for this, as its own data, from the National Family Health Survey, > and the Census, already show what direction the country was headed, she > explained. "Why express shock as a nation that we are overtaking China, or > our population is increasing in terms of numbers?"* > > *Muttreja talks about what India must do to avoid demographic disaster, > why women need easier access to contraception, and why men need to be > involved in family planning.* > > *Edited excerpts:* > > *Let's look at India's population growth numbers in terms of our own > resources and our ability to provide good social and economic prospects, > including job opportunities, to our young population. Where do we stand > right now in terms of our capability of providing these resources to manage > a growing population?* > > I give India literally three or four out of 10, and I'll explain why. We > in India knew where we stood in terms of demographics and numbers, and in > which direction we were going, but we have done very little to invest in > either health or education or skill development. We talk a lot about skill > development > <https://www.indiaspend.com/how-govt-skills-training-programmes-aimed-for-wrong-targets-wasted-public-funds-13387/> > and > India's demographic dividend > <https://www.indiaspend.com/indias-demographic-dividend-64-4-youth-27-3-children-in-2015-2015/>, > as though it's an automatic thing that will happen. Though there is a > window of opportunity we still have [to reap the demographic dividend], > it's limited. It won't last forever. > > About 15 years ago, we got a study done which showed that only 2% of > Indians had the skills and capabilities of entering the job market, where > the good job opportunities exist. That hasn't improved very much, if you > look at the numbers > <https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2017/06/23/skilling-india>. It > could be 3% by now, but it is still dismally low. > > Second, where is our investment in health? We invest 1.4% > <https://m.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=20877> [instead > of] 3% > <https://populationfoundation.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Government-Spending-on-Health-2.pdf> > of > our gross domestic product in health. The previous and current government > have talked about increasing investments in health. But within the health > sector, [family planning accounts for] a meagre 6% > <https://m.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=20877> of the > meagre health budget. We don't even invest much in temporary [family > planning] methods, which is what young people who want to postpone having > children or to space [apart] childbirth, need. Why do we invest 85% of our > [family planning] expenditure in permanent methods > <https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/files/documents/2020/Jan/un_2019_contraceptiveusebymethod_databooklet.pdf#page=12>, > which is sterilisation? Around 77% of Indian women who undergo > sterilisation have never had prior experience with temporary methods of > family planning. > > In education, I think India has made some progress, though we need to do a > lot more. I'm not going to talk about learning achievements, but just in > terms of the fact that if a woman is educated up to class 12, she'll have > fewer children, i.e. two or less, and if she has lesser education, she will > have three or more children. So there, we've made some progress. > > *You also spoke about population growth slowing down, globally as well as > in India. Can you put that in context for us? Why do you say we shouldn't > worry too much about this?* > > Thirty one states and Union territories in India have reached > <http://rchiips.org/nfhs/NFHS-5Reports/NFHS-5_INDIA_REPORT.pdf> the > [population] replacement level > <https://nhm.gov.in/New_Updates_2018/Report_Population_Projection_2019.pdf#page=22> > of > 2.1. When I say replacement level, I'm referring to two children born to > replace two parents. There are five states in India which have rapid > population growth, of which two, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, need investments > in population stabilisation, not coercion and incentives and disincentives. > I can tell you that the latest NFHS data show that they are also making > progress. Fertility rates are coming down in both Uttar Pradesh > <http://rchiips.org/nfhs/NFHS-5_FCTS/Uttar_Pradesh.pdf#page=3> and Bihar > <http://rchiips.org/nfhs/NFHS-5_FCTS/Bihar.pdf#page=3>. > > In the short term, it is a good thing. But in the long run, it means our > population will stabilise by 2050, which is what both the Indian government > projects and international data show. In that case, we will begin to have > an adverse [dependency] ratio > <https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/age-dependency-ratio-projected-to-2100?country=~IND> > between > older generations and young people. This means we will have fewer young > people and more older people, thus we will not have enough young people to > look after older people. Plus, we don't have social security in India at > all, in any form, especially for the aged. That is going to be a problem. > Also, in about 20 years, if we don't skill our young people and create > jobs, there's going to be a demographic disaster. > > *Why is it that population growth is **slowing down* > <https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_press_release.pdf>*, > whether in India or elsewhere?* > > Let me talk about India first. In India, population growth is slowing > because people want fewer children. Frankly, women across the world want > fewer children. In India, the 'wanted fertility rate > <https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fertility-and-wanted-fertility>' is > 1.8 <https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.WFRT?locations=IN>. Data > in 2015 showed 16 million abortions > <https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(17)30453-9/fulltext>, > but this would have increased, and as we don't have a subsequent > assessment, I would imagine that we are close to 20 million per year now. I > think it's a big shame and I feel very upset about the fact that women > should have to use abortion as a proxy for contraception. It shows you the > desperation. > > Then, if you look at the most recent NFHS data, the unmet need for family > planning in India--i.e. people who desire to have fewer children and are > not able to because they don't have access to or the agency to opt for > family planning--is still 10% > <http://rchiips.org/nfhs/NFHS-5_FCTS/India.pdf#page=3>. No child should > be an unwanted child. In fact, an unwanted, unexpected, or unplanned child > has a 50% higher chance of being malnourished. [India also had] high > under-five mortality rates > <http://rchiips.org/nfhs/NFHS-5_FCTS/India.pdf#page=3>. > > Further, women or families wish to have fewer children [because] they > can't afford to feed children anymore, leave alone educate them. Look at > the food inflation rates in India. > > Finally, the marginalised and poor people in terms of education and > incomes, now know how the better-off half lives, thanks to the media. They > recognise that the better-off have one or two children, and invest in them. > So they too wish to have more education and better lives for fewer children. > > Another reason is that fertility has declined because the age at marriage > is increasing > <https://www.indiaspend.com/indiaspend-interviews/law-not-sufficient-to-bring-social-change-that-will-end-child-marriage-803628>. > Not sufficiently, as one in five girls still gets married below the legal > age, but we have made some progress. > > *How should we be broadly preparing to become the most populous nation in > the world? To what extent will this be an opportunity, and to what extent > will it be a challenge? How do we manage our resources as a country going > forward?* > > I would like to see this as an opportunity for us to invest more in family > planning and more methods [of family planning]. Every time you add a new > method > <https://populationfoundation.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Fileattached-1513326457-Infographic.pdf>, > the use of contraceptives increases by 6% to 12%, and fertility declines. > In our whole region > <https://populationfoundation.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Fileattached-1513326457-Infographic.pdf>, > I would say, India has the fewest number of contraceptive methods. India > needs to bring in the technology which the world is using. We are yet to > introduce implants > <https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/contraception/contraceptive-implant/>, > which is a very suitable method for people who are planning families or who > want to space their children. There is also this hormonal method > <https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/contraception/ius-intrauterine-system/> with > which pregnancy can be prevented from three to five years. There's one > method for [delaying for] three years and one for five years. It is > something for which women don't need permission from or consensus within > the family, unlike for sterilisation. > > I can name any number of countries in our neighbourhood where fertility > decline has taken place on the basis of introducing new modern methods. > India needs to do that. India needs to spend more money on temporary > methods of family planning. India needs to, without coercion, involve and > engage its men in family planning. Men do not take responsibility for > family planning or for having children. I always say for men, it's about > sex, and for women, it's about getting pregnant and having families. So we > need more male methods. But of the male family planning methods that exist, > which are condoms and sterilisation, just 0.3% > <http://rchiips.org/nfhs/NFHS-5_FCTS/India.pdf#page=3> of Indian men opt > for sterilisation while among women, it's about 50%. > > *You're saying that reaching this landmark of the world's largest country > by population is an opportunity to really step up the efforts on population > management, but we've tried this before as well. So are you advocating a > more stringent focus on this?* > > Coercion will not work in India. Even if we succeed in coercing some > people, we are going to have adverse sex ratios because of male preference > and daughter aversion in India. China has male preference but they don't > have daughter aversion, as we do. As it is, our sex ratios are adverse and > they will decline much further [with coercive methods of population > control]. > > Two other points I want to add: first, we need sex education. We need to > make our young people not just aware of contraceptives, but about issues > around planning for their lives, for their education, and how early > marriage and early childbirth impacts this. We need to do comprehensive sex > education and create awareness in schools. > > Second, we need young people to have more access to contraceptives. Even > today, an ANM > <https://nhm.gov.in/images/pdf/communitisation/task-group-reports/guidelines-on-asha.pdf#page=5> > [auxiliary > nurse midwife] or ASHA > <https://nhm.gov.in/images/pdf/communitisation/task-group-reports/guidelines-on-asha.pdf> > [accredited > social health activist] worker, who belongs to the same community and > shares the same social norms, doesn't encourage family planning or give > young people access to contraception. Not even newly married couples; I'm > not talking about single people. Young, newly married couples are always > told that they don't need contraception, they need to prove their fertility. > > Also, as we discussed earlier, we need to invest in both education and > skill development of young people more seriously in a mission mode. This > government has shown that what it is determined to do, it does do. There > has to be determination. > > Finally, we have to stop diverting the issue by saying there's a > population bomb and we need coercion. We can't just stop there. We need to > do all these other things. Just coercion is going to get us nowhere. > > > > -- > Anda menerima pesan ini karena berlangganan grup "GELORA45" di Google Grup. > Untuk berhenti berlangganan dan berhenti menerima email dari grup ini, > kirim email ke [email protected]. > Untuk melihat diskusi ini di web, kunjungi > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/gelora1945/CAGjSX2DGTcB1fKWUBPCEVGYxzoguffu8gJ4q4K56bkNtZzDCZw%40mail.gmail.com > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/gelora1945/CAGjSX2DGTcB1fKWUBPCEVGYxzoguffu8gJ4q4K56bkNtZzDCZw%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> > . > -- Anda menerima pesan ini karena Anda berlangganan grup "GELORA45" dari Google Grup. Untuk berhenti berlangganan dan berhenti menerima email dari grup ini, kirim email ke [email protected]. Untuk melihat diskusi ini di web, kunjungi https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/gelora1945/CAG8tavhddaVMWC7ChVDoeUrK11v7iSRiu957VGiGQ%3DQ%3DB_yEjw%40mail.gmail.com.
