https://www.clarionproject.org/analysis/battle-liberate-mosul-good-its-residents
News Analysis Is the Battle to Liberate Mosul Good for Its Residents? Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis may be trapped over the coming days in the battle between ISIS and coalition forces. What of the survivors? By Ran Meir Wed, October 19, 2016 Fleeing the Mosul area. (Photo © Getty Images) Editor's note: At the outset it must be stressed that Clarion Project wants to see an end to the scourge that is the Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL) in Mosul and everywhere. In this analysis we look at the potential cost of the operation to wrest control of Mosul from ISIS to the residents of the city. Mosul is one of Iraq’s largest cities – the capital of Nineveh Province. It’s a beautiful, developed city, bisected by the Tigris river. More than two and a half million people called Mosul “home” in 2014. In June 2014, ISIS captured the city. The coalition forces ground operation to free the city began on October 17, according to Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. Some 30,000 soldiers are fighting to free Mosul, including the – Iraqi army, Kurdish Peshmerga forces, Sunni tribal forces and Shia militias. The international coalition is also part of the battle – Turkish forces, U.S. advisors and others. The operation is expected to take from a few weeks or months. Usually in war, the real losers are the civilians. While the battle for Mosul has begun, the fight for a return to normality is not on the horizon. In these types of operations, enemy targets are always drawn up, but we hear far less about the numbers of civilians that need saving. There are, of course, efforts to rescue residents, but there are questions over the efficacy of these plans. On, October 18, the International Committee of the Red Cross called on all sides to spare civilian lives and refrain from hitting civilian targets. But will anyone really listen? Is it that easy in a war to differentiate between terrorist and civilian? Coalition airplanes dropped leaflets warning of impending strikes, but the fact that one is aware of a battle does not mean it can be avoided. It has been reported the U.N. will create camps for up to one million refugees. Even if that happens and even if people can reach the camps, we can surmise from seeing the camps in Jordan and Turkey just how difficult life will be there. There’s no doubt that when the battle begins in the city itself, and not just on its periphery, that thousands will try to escape and ISIS doesn’t have the personnel to stop them all. The option to remain looks the more dangerous one. ISIS may use thousands as human shields to protect its strategic interests. Thousands more may get caught up in crossfire between ISIS and liberating forces as they have no safe way to leave. They will have to deal with snipers, landmines and other explosives. How many of the residents will eventually be able to return to their homes even if they are still standing? Once ISIS is defeated, who will actually control the city? Will it necessarily be a central government? These questions can only be asked by the lucky one who manage to escape. The key issue is not if there will be casualties, but how to keep their numbers as small as is humanly possible? Ran Meir is Clarion Project's Arab Affairs Analyst
