June 8, 2020Topic: Security
<https://nationalinterest.org/topic/security>Region: Asia
<https://nationalinterest.org/region/asia>Tags: China
<https://nationalinterest.org/tag/china>Beijing
<https://nationalinterest.org/tag/beijing>Xi Jinping
<https://nationalinterest.org/tag/xi-jinping>Donald Trump
<https://nationalinterest.org/tag/donald-trump-0>National Security
<https://nationalinterest.org/tag/national-security>
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-trump-administration-has-helped-china-161641
Why the Trump Administration Has Helped China
The Trump administration mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic and the
death of George Floyd has raised the stature of China, which is now
perceived as the more competent country in the world.
byKishore Mahbubani <https://nationalinterest.org/profile/kishore-mahbubani>
Reuters
Strange as it may sound,China
<https://nationalinterest.org/tag/china>will miss the Trump
administration, if, and when, it goes.
57,774
Undoubtedly, the Trump administration has been the most aggravating
administration that China has had to deal with since the normalization
process that Henry Kissinger began in 1971. It has launched a trade war
that has damaged the Chinese economy a little. Restrictions have been
placed on technology exports to China. A massive effort has been
undertaken to cripple Huawei. Yet, the most galling move has been the
effort to extradite Meng Wanzhou. Applying Western laws to Chinese
citizens reminds the Chinese people vividly of the Century of
Humiliation when Western laws were applied on Chinese soil.
Yet, if theChinese leaders
<https://nationalinterest.org/feature/china-challenge-123271>think
long-term and strategically, as they are wont to do, they could also
calculate that the Trump administrationmay have helped
<https://nationalinterest.org/feature/pandemic-pressure-coronavirus-antagonizing-america%E2%80%99s-relationships-159431>China.
Clearly, the Trump administration has no thoughtful, comprehensive
andlong-term strategy
<https://www.amazon.com/Has-China-Won-Challenge-American/dp/1541768132>to
manage an ever-rising China. Nor has it heeded the wise advice of key
strategic thinkers, like Kissinger or George Kennan. Kennan, for
example, advised that the long-term outcome of the contest with the then
Soviet Union would depend on “the degree to which the United States can
create among the peoples of the world” the impression of a country
“which is coping with the problem of its internal life” and “which has a
spiritual vitality.” No such impression has been created by the Trump
administration.Post-coronavirus
<https://nationalinterest.org/feature/great-power-consequences-coronavirus-158721>and
post-George Floyd, America is delivering the opposite impression. In
relative terms, the Trump administration has raised the stature of
China, which is now perceived asthe more competent country
<https://nationalinterest.org/feature/abandoning-world-health-organization-will-benefit-china-160951>in
the world.
To be fair, America’s internal problems have preceded President Donald
Trump. It is the only major developed country where the income of the
bottom fifty percent has gone down for a thirty-year period leading to
the creation of a “sea of despair” among the white working classes. John
Rawls would have been appalled to see this. Indeed, as Martin Wolf of
theFinancial Times says, America has become a plutocracy. By contrast,
China has created a meritocratic governing system. A meritocracy could
well out-perform a plutocracy.
Equally importantly, Kennan emphasized that America had to assiduously
cultivate friends and allies. The Trump administration has seriously
damaged relationships with friends and allies. In private, the Europeans
are appalled. Walking away from the World Health Organization (WHO) when
the world never needed the WHO more, especially to help poor African
countries, was massively irresponsible. Not one American ally followed
the United States out of WHO. The Trump administration has also
threatened tariffs on allies like Canada and Mexico, Germany and France.
All this does not mean that the rest of the world will rush to embrace
China. Indeed, the Europeans have developed new reservations about
working closely with China. Yet, there is no doubt that diminishing
global respect for the United States opens more geopolitical space for
China. Madeleine Albright once said “We are the indispensable nation. We
stand tall and we see further than other countries into the future.” The
Trump administration may succeed in making America a dispensable nation,
presenting another geopolitical gift to China.
The Trump administration has also ignored another wise piece of advice
of George Kennan: to not insult one’s adversaries. No other
Administration has insulted China as much as the Trump administration.
Trump has said“China’s pattern of misconduct is well known. For decades,
they have ripped off the United States like no one has ever done before.”
In theory, such insults could have damaged the standing of the Chinese
government in the eyes of its own people. The effect has been the
opposite. According to the latest Edelman Trust Barometer, the country
where the people have the highest trust in their government is China. It
is 90 percent. This is not surprising. For the vast majority of Chinese
people, the past forty years of social and economic development have
been the best in four thousand years. Kennan spoke of domestic
“spiritual vitality.” China enjoys it today. A Stanford University
psychologist, Jean Fan, has observed that “in contrast to America’s
stagnation, China’s culture, self-concept, and morale are being
transformed at a rapid pace—mostly for the better.” The Chinese people
are also acutely aware that China has handled the coronavirus crisis
better than America. If America had the same rate of fatalities as
China, then it would have had one thousand deaths instead of one-hundred
thousand. Against this backdrop, the constant insults hurled at China
have only provoked a strong nationalistic response, boosting the
standing of the Chinese government. One small but critical point needs
to be added here: no other government in the world hurls insults at
China. America stands alone in this dimension, ignoring once again
Kennan’s valuable advice: “And if there were any qualities that lie
within our ability to cultivate that might set us off from the rest of
the world, these would be the virtues of modesty and humility.”
If he were alive today, then Kennan would first advise his fellow
Americans to step back and thoughtfully work out a comprehensive
long-term strategy before plunging into a major geopolitical contest
against China. Any such strategy, heeding the advice of thinkers like
Sun Tzu, would first require a comprehensive evaluation of the relative
strengths and weaknesses of both parties.
There is no doubt that America retains many magnificent strengths. It
remains the most successful society humanity has created since human
history began. No other society has sent a man to the moon. No other
society has produced a Google and Facebook, Apple and Amazon, in short
order. Even more remarkably, two of its biggest corporations, Google and
Microsoft, are run by foreign-born citizens. No major Chinese
corporation is run by a non-Chinese. China can tap the talents of 1.4
billion people; America can tap the talent of 7.8 billion, including
talented Chinese. It would be a huge mistake for any Chinese leader to
underestimate America. Fortunately, or unfortunately, that is not likely
to happen.
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<https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-trump-administration-has-helped-china-161641#report-ad>
By contrast, in evaluating China’s relative strengths and weaknesses,
the Trump administration is making the mistake of underestimating China.
Here the supreme ideological conviction that democracies will always
triumph against a communist party system creates a particular
ideological blindness in America. In reality, functionally, the CCP does
not stand for the Chinese Communist Party. It stands for the Chinese
Civilization Party. The key goal of the CCP is not to revive communism
globally. It is to revive the world’s oldest civilization and make it
again one of the world’s most respected civilizations. This is the goal
that energizes the Chinese people and explains the unusual vibrancy and
vitality of Chinese society. Equally importantly, the Chinese
civilization has historically been the most resilient civilization. As
Professor Wang Gungwu says, it is the only civilization to have been
knocked four times over four thousand years. Each time it stood up
again. There is no doubt that Chinese civilization is now a great
renaissance.
It is therefore unwise for any American strategic thinker to assume that
Americans cannot lose. It’s true that America hasn’t lost a major
contest in over a hundred years but it has never had to deal with a
competitor as formidable as China. Equally importantly, if the primary
goal of the CCP is to improve the well-being of its people (and thereby
revive Chinese civilization), there need not be a fundamental
contradiction with the primary goal of any new American administration:
to once again improve the well-being of the American people. Hence, when
the Trump administration goes and America tries again to work out a more
thoughtful long-term strategy towards China, it should consider a now
unthinkable option: a strong Chinese civilization and a strong America
can live together in peace in the twenty-first century. The world will
be relieved and even cheer this outcome. And the American people will be
better off.
57,775
/Kishore Mahbubani is a professor in the practice of public policy at
the National University of Singapore and the author of/Has China Won?
<https://www.amazon.com/Has-China-Won-Challenge-American/dp/1541768132>
/Image: Reuters/
