Michael Hughes wrote: > I have heard nothing in the last couple of months. > I sincerely doubt that there will be any real progress on the royalty issue in the near term. In fact unless a wall cracks I don't see any real action for 2008, The bill(s) in Washington are going to find out how good Washington is at lip service while proceeding forward at about the same pace as crude oil running uphill in Alaska in the month of January. It is an election year and while having done some additional checking at various websites, I haven't seen or heard, anything at any of the presidential wannabes websites that could potentially lend some speed to these bills being pushed harder.
As to resolution between the major music houses and the terra broadcasters, well, there is more opportunity here. Working in SoundExchange's advantage is this soft economy. Radio really would like to see this drag out. I do believe that most radio exec's recognize that they will begin to pay performance royalties in the very very near future, just as they are suppose to for their ever increasing web streams. Keeping that in mind, you are gonna see even more consolidation especially in the smaller markets. Why? Costs are going to increase due to those royalties whatever they become. Business models will have to adjust. And with even fewer organizations to negotiate with, resolution becomes a bit easier to achieve. Smaller market stations who rely more on local advertising then the major markets, will have a much tougher time adjusting their business models to maintain profit levels, leave alone grow profits in this tenuous economy. Quick aside here, with pressure to increase listenership and potential profits, some of the larger small market terra stations are going to look to the web for revenue increase. (NPR has lead the charge in this area.) They are coming after the same listener that small webcasters have courted and they are going to use many of the same methods of revenue generation that you use. They are gonna partner with retail outlets to sell CD's T-shirts etc. This will make your competition that much stiffer. Sometime in very late 2008 or more probable in 2009 (and quite possibly 2010) I think you will see true progress. I think you will see a performance royalty established at approximately 8% to 10% of revenue generated. There will be some healthy discussion about web generated versus traditional revenues but the market is going to resolve this in favor of web generated without excluding traditional, As to the figure, well, look at the satellite people. Think long and hard also about the fact that almost any settlement with SoundExchange has included a gag clause to keep agreements sealed. The satellite settlement was allowed to ?leak? in the area concerning that percentage. Why? Well to tip their hands as to which direction the music industry wants to go. And people, that is a very good number for you, the small webcaster. I also think that in that time period, a true small webcaster rate will be established (as well as a separate non-profit rate) that will be just slightly lower. Okay, I'll kick my soapbox out of the way and pack up my Mr. Microphone. My 2 pennies have been left behind in their place. To all on the list Happy New Year, may all have a profitable year. -- Al Rehmann
