I am going to take this opportunity to mention the chat forum, and to quote this bit of text from the page which is a redirect target of the forums.jsoftware.com url:
There are six forum mailing lists: programming - - the main forum, covering J programming from beginner to expert, and announcements beta - current beta (bugs, problems, suggestions) chat - all other discussions on computer languages and J - messages welcomed from both J and non-J programmers database - discussions on Jd, the J database general - installation, support, forums, wiki/website and other infrastructure topics source - J engine source (I don't think this thread is going to be about a general forum topic if I do not help make it so.) Thanks, -- Raul On Thu, Oct 8, 2020 at 3:52 PM Devon McCormick <[email protected]> wrote: > > Raul took what I wrote and ran with it in one direction but my only point > was that the 2nd version (34^~-.0.01) is nice because it directly > incorporates the two numbers mentioned rather than using (what we all know > is) 0.99=1-0.01 (or -.0.1). > > There's a possible example of Bayesian updating here if, instead of a point > value like 0.007, we use a distribution centered on 0.007 and update this > estimate based on subsequent information like how many actually die of the > disease within a relevant period, say 2 weeks. Introducing a time limit > like this also speaks to Raul's addition of a baseline mortality rate of > something like 1%/year which also needs to be considered in a more > comprehensive model. > > On Thu, Oct 8, 2020 at 3:21 PM Brian Bambrough <[email protected]> > wrote: > > > The chance that I survive is 0.99. The chance that you survive is > > 0.99. The chance for each of the other 32 to survive is 0.99. The > > chance that we all survive is 0.99^34 or 0.71. > > > > On 10/8/20 12:44 AM, Devon McCormick wrote: > > > If 34 people have a disease which is fatal about 1% of the time, what is > > > the chance that no one in the group dies? > > > ) > > > 2020 10 7 23 42 40.156 > > > 0.99^34 > > > 0.710553 > > > 34^~-. 0.01 NB. Stating it another way > > > 0.710553 > > > > > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > > For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/forums.htm > > > > > -- > > Devon McCormick, CFA > > Quantitative Consultant > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/forums.htm ---------------------------------------------------------------------- For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/forums.htm
