Hi,

I reviewed ten years of Incubator data (2016 to 2025) from more than 100 
podlings. Here are some patterns that might help podlings, mentors, and the 
IPMC.

1. Slow starts are normal
Most podlings spend their first 6 to 12 months getting set up and learning ASF 
processes. It’s normal for things to be quiet at the start, so there’s no need 
to worry.

2. Growth usually begins after the first release
At this point, new contributors often join, code reviews become more frequent, 
and promotions usually begin.

3. Healthy podlings grow steadily
Healthy podlings keep adding contributors, recognise people who stay involved, 
grow their PPMC, and rely less on mentors as they go.

4. Struggling podlings show the opposite
Struggling podlings often start with large teams but don’t attract new 
contributors. They might go a long time without growing, keep the same PPMC 
list, and depend on mentors to make decisions.

5. Promotion culture matters
Both high-bar and low-bar podlings can graduate, but successful ones usually 
recognise people earlier. Podlings that never promote anyone, or don’t make the 
bar clear, tend to struggle the most.

6. Behaviour is the best predictor
Open decision-making, visible participation, and community-led governance are 
much stronger signs of graduation than any single metric.

7. PPMC growth is the strongest governance signal
Graduated podlings show real PPMC growth, while retired podlings rarely do.

You can find the document here. [1]

Kind regards,
Justin

1.https://cwiki.apache.org/confluence/display/INCUBATOR/Community+and+Governance+Growth
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