Dan,
Your data permits some interesting analysis. There were 26 days with no
traffic and 3 occasions with two successive days with no traffic so the
recent gap is not particularly unusual and I suspect was broken on a
previous occasion in the same way - with an inquiry about traffic.
In this part of the world the weekly cycle is very noticeable, there is less
traffic on Monday when the Americans think it is still Sunday.
Starting with the first observation the weekday totals are 833 1078 1139
1212 1163 1024 767. The sequence starts on a Sunday, presumably EST in the
US,
There are lots of tools one may apply to the data, but the very limited
smoothing up to 8 weekly averages suggests that the distribution of posts is
quite long tailed - not surprising when you look at the number of posts to
particular threads.
At this stage if you want to post forum message 50,000 I suggest you had
better keep a close eye on the numbers closer to the event, but announcing
it may have made it harder.
Fraser
----- Original Message -----
From: "Dan Bron" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "'Dan Bron'" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; "'General forum'" <[email protected]>
Sent: Thursday, July 10, 2008 1:44 PM
Subject: RE: [Jgeneral] Re: Forum traffic
Then you can apply all the statistics you want.
If one visits http://www.jsoftware.com/forumsearch and presses "Search"
without filling out any fields, you'll see the message
Listing 100 of 47765 messages found.
which tells you that, in aggregate, 48e3 messages have been posted across
all the Forums since their inception.
Do any of you statisticians (amateur or pro) care to predict when the
50,000th message will be posted? I want to post that
message.
-Dan
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