DRAFT LETTER TO THE PRIME MINISTER
I have redrafted this letter in the light of comments from Andrew Lockley. I
have added the security dimension, because I believe it is only by regarding it
as a question of war that we can grasp the true enormity of our predicament.
Please consider whether you'd be willing to add your name to the signatories.
Thanks,
John
(John Nissen, Chiswick, London)
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To: The Prime Minister, the Right Hon Gordon Brown, MP
Stabilising Climate and Sea Level
We believe that there is a looming environmental crisis which has catastrophic
implications for the security of the world. Indeed we believe that this crisis
should be treated as urgently as an immediate threat of war, since global
conflict would be an almost inevitable consequence of global warming out of
control.
This crisis arises from the threat of abrupt and irreversible global warming
being triggered by events in the Arctic region, where warming has been at least
twice as fast as the global average. This warming is being accelerated by the
highly reflective sea ice melting in summer, giving way to open water which
absorbs over 90% of sunlight. If allowed to continue unabated, the warming
will have a number of dangerous consequences:
a.. the almost complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice at the end of summer,
which could happen by 2013 or sooner according to some experts;
b.. severe damage to an entire ecosystem, with repercussions on marine food
chains;
c.. the release of vast amounts of the potent greenhouse gas, methane,
trapped in frozen structures such as permafrost;
d.. the destabilisation of the Greenland ice sheet and rapid sea level rise.
Top climate scientists consider the Arctic sea ice disappearance as a tipping
point for the whole climate system. Thus saving the Arctic sea ice is key to
preventing disastrous global warming and sea level rise.
This is a grim picture. The retreat of Arctic sea ice is happening too fast
for reductions in CO2 emissions to have any perceptible effect.
But we believe there may be a way out of this predicament using what is called
"geoengineering" to cool the whole Arctic region. There are two particular
technologies which have an excellent chance of saving the Arctic sea ice, if
they are deployed before it disappears:
a.. the creation of stratospheric clouds (or reflecting haze) using sulphate
aerosols;
b.. the brightening of marine clouds using very fine particles of salt.
This is a now or never opportunity. Once the sea ice is gone, the chance of
successful geoengineering is much reduced.
Considering what is at stake, we would like to recommend a programme with has
the urgency, decisiveness and focus of the Manhattan project. Its supreme
challenge would be the deployment of geoengineering technologies on a scale
sufficient to halt the trend of Arctic sea ice retreat in 2010 and to start
reversing the trend in 2011. If successful on this scale, these same
technologies could then be tested on a larger scale to halt global warming and
stabilise both climate and sea level.
These technologies are not to be considered a substitute for other actions to
mitigate climate change. Indeed it may be necessary to prevent the level of
CO2 in the atmosphere rising much above its current level to avoid undue ocean
acidification. Geoengineering can provide some tools to attack global warming
- but we need to use all the tools at our disposal to be sure to avoid disaster
and preserve the environment for the benefit of future generations.
Yours sincerely,
John Nissen
London W4 2PR
Tel: 020 8742 3170
Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[other signatories]
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