I've just clarified and inserted citations into the following section http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runaway_climate_change#Current_risk
If people could comment on the logic and sources used, I'd be very grateful. Once people are generally happy that the research is solid, I'll be copying this argument in appropriate forms to various wikis. Therefore, I really hope that anyone who's got the slightest doubt about the logic will shoot me down in flames - publicly! ---- The phenomenon of Arctic shrinkage is leading some scientists to fear that a runaway climate change event may be imminent, and may even have started[11]. Arctic sea ice is shrinking rapidly, and this will induce positive feedback mechanisms: Albedo effect, as white ice is replaced by dark ocean, possibly as early as 2013[12] James Hansen argues that geoengineering is the only way to save the Arctic sea ice , as we are likely already to have passed the tipping point and it is too late for carbon emissions reduction to work.[13] Arctic methane release from melting permafrost and clathrates. David Lawrence showed how rapid melting of the sea ice sets up a feedback loop that also rapidly melts arctic permafrost.[14] His models show that within 100 years, all of the permafrost also melts.[citation needed] It takes about 100 years for organic carbon in permafrost to be fully released as methane, and methane clathrates release probably much faster than that.[citation needed] Estimates of the size of the total carbon reservoir in Arctic permafrost and clathrates vary widely.[citation needed] However, it is suggested that is at least 9000 gigatonnes of carbon in permafrost worldwide.[15]. Further, there are believed to be around and another 400 gigatonnes of carbon in methane clathrates in permafrost regions alone.[16]. However, Buffett and Archer predict a much higher release of between 2,000 and 4,000 gigatonnes as a result of expected human-induced warming, as they include some deep-ocean clathrate stores in the expected release.[17] Should the more conservative estimate be correct or at least too low, then 1300 gigatonnes of carbon may potentially be released as methane from permafrost and clathrates as a result of human activity. As methane is a potent greenhouse gas, this is equivalent to a release of carbon dioxide very roughly 50 times the total emitted by humans since the Industrial Revolution. A release on this scale, or even a fraction of it, will create catastrophic climate change and is likely to lead to a complete collapse of human civilisation.[18] References ^ http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/sep/23/climatechange.scienceofclimatechange1 ^ http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/oct/18/bookextracts.books ^ http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2008/08/22/identity-politics-in-climate-change-hell/ ^ http://www.scenta.co.uk/nature/weather/cit/1737333/long-detailed-impressive-but-futile-in-the-face-of-runaway-climate-change.htm ^ Physics of the Greenhouse Effect (March 10, 2008) http://chriscolose.wordpress.com/2008/03/10/physics-of-the-greenhouse-effect-pt-2/ ^ How to kill (almost) all life: the end-Permian extinction event, Michael J. Benton and Richard J. Twitchett, Department of Earth Sciences University of Bristol UK, TRENDS in Ecology and Evolution Vol.18 No.7 July 2003, doi:10.1016/S0169-5347(03)00093-4 (full reprintPDF (506 KiB)) ^ Climate change: 'One degree and we're done for' - earth - September 27, 2006 - New Scientist Environment ^ S. I. Rasoonl and C. de Bergh, "The Runaway Greenhouse Effect and the Accumulation of CO2 in the Atmosphere of Venus," Nature, 226', pp. 1037-1039, 1970. ^ Venus - Stuart Robbins and David McDonald ^ Notes (created by Nick Strobel) for an introductory astronomy courses he teaches. Nick's new site Old site (The Wayback Machine) ^ http://www.terranature.org/environmentalCrisis.htm ^ http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7139797.stm ^ http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/the-earth-today-stands-in-imminent-peril-453708.html ^ http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2008/permafrost.jsp ^ http://www.terranature.org/methaneSiberia.htm ^ http://www.springerlink.com/content/r4w867922g607w2j/ ^ http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUSM.U33A..05B ^ http://www.ecoearth.info/shared/reader/welcome.aspx?linkid=51491 --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
