>4) What happens to methane sinks under conditions of bulk outgassing? I only did a quick search when reading some of the previous discussion here, so don't take this as solid at all. But what I have in mind is that the main process by which methane is destroyed could in principle be overwhelmed, so that its half-life in the atmosphere would increase. Or rather, its kinetics would change so that it wouldn't have a half-life but rather be removed at a rate that's a constant plus a component proportional to its concentration.
On Feb 4, 9:28 pm, Andrew Lockley <[email protected]> wrote: > After getting thoroughly shouted at, I realised I needed to improve my > 'runaway' arguments. > > My current skeleton is below. However, it's currently missing a few > crucial bones which now need replacing. I need citations for the > following: > > 1) A clathrate gun effect that shows rapid release? Buffett and > Archer, and Archer alone, show a slow release, although from a large > reservoir. > 2) A calculation of the eventual warming that may result from methane > release from permafrost/clathrates. > 3) A study showing the impacts of such a level of warming on human > civilisation/survival. > 4) What happens to methane sinks under conditions of bulk outgassing? > Do they fail and massively increase the global warming potential of > methane? > > We've discussed all these issues before, but I think it's now time to > get any available research on the issue into the open. Is there > REALLY a big and immediate risk from the clathrate gun/permafrost? > > A > > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming#Abrupt_climate... > > The scientific consensus in the [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report]] is > that "Anthropogenic warming could lead to some effects that are abrupt > or irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate > change." > > The phenomenon of [[Arctic shrinkage]] is leading some scientists to > fear that a runaway climate change event may be > imminent<ref>http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/oct/18/bookextracts.books</ref>, > and may even have > started<ref>http://www.terranature.org/environmentalCrisis.htm</ref>. > There is an [[albedo]] effect, as white ice is replaced by dark ocean. > Rapid [[Arctic shrinkage]] is occurring, with 2007 being the lowest > ever recorded area and 2008 being possibly the lowest ever recorded > volume.<ref>http://nsidc.org/news/press/20081002_seaice_pressrelease.html</ref> > This will induce or accelerate other [[positive feedback]] mechanisms, > such as [[Arctic methane release]] from melting [[permafrost]] and > [[clathrates]]. Lawrence et al(2008) suggests that a rapid melting of > the sea ice may up a feedback loop that rapidly melts arctic > permafrost.<ref>http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2008/permafrost.jsp</ref><ref>{{Citation > | year=2008 | title=Accelerated Arctic land warming and permafrost > degradation during rapid sea ice loss | first=David M. | last=Lawrence > | first2=Andrew G. | last2=Slater | first3=Robert A. | last3=Tomas | > first4=Marika M. | last4=Holland | first5=Clara | last5=Deser | > journal=[[Geophysical Research Letters]] | volume=35 | issue=11 | > doi=10.1029/2008GL033985 | > url=http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/dlawren/publications/lawrence.grl.submit....}}</ref> > > Estimates of the size of the total carbon reservoir in Arctic > [[permafrost]] and [[clathrates]] vary widely. It is suggested that > at least 900 gigatonnes of carbon in permafrost exists > worldwide.<ref>http://www.terranature.org/methaneSiberia.htm</ref>{{fact}}. > Further, there are believed to be around and another 400 gigatonnes > of carbon in methane clathrates in permafrost regions > alone.<ref>http://www.springerlink.com/content/r4w867922g607w2j/</ref>. > Should this estimate of volume be correct or at least too low, and if > clathrates are omitted from the analysis completely, then 900 > gigatonnes of carbon may potentially be released as methane as a > result of human activity. [[Methane]] is a potent [[greenhouse gas]] > with a higher [[global warming potential]] than [[CO2]]. A release on > this scale will create [[catastrophic climate change]]. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
