Dear Ken and other Geoengineering Group members,
I am not sure exactly who the "we" in Ken Caldeira's message refers to, but I think it would be premature (to be generous) to assert there is meaningful consensus about the need to do research into climate intervention/geoengineering. In fact, in the major intergovernmental forum where responses to climate change are being discussed (the UNFCCC meetings in preparation for Copenhagen) there has not been any discussion of this topic. Recent relevant decisions in other fora, such as the Convention on Biological Diversity , the London Convention and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea have tended to caution against real world experimentation in geoengineering technologies (mostly ocean fertilization) . The vast majority of the world's governments, peoples, environmentalists and other civil society groups involved in these processes have very little -- if any -- knowledge of what is being proposed in the field of geoengineering. While one of the four pillars of the UNFCCC talks is technology, there is no reference to geoengineering anywhere in the draft text. Surely if this was a matter of consensus, one would find such a reference. I think the consensus that Ken is referring to is maybe one amongst a narrow group of climate scientists, or perhaps amongst an even narrower set of individuals interested in geoengineering. Such as most of the members of this group? The recent flurry of reports, many of which were authored by regular contributors to this group cannot possibly be construed as a consensus. There is no way that a question of such magnitude and far reaching implications should be conceived as a technical matter to be resolved by a small group of scientists. Trying to restrain the debate and frame it in such narrow technical terms will yield conclusions that are wrong, incomplete and counter- productive to meeting the climate challenge. Let me be clear – Apart from geoengineering diverting funds from other climate related research that in my view would be more fruitful, there is some research into geoengineering technologies that is harmless. Climate scientists should be free to explore whatever interventions they wish in the laboratory or via computer modelling (‘behind closed doors among consenting adults’ as it has been eloquently expressed). But we know how limited those results can be and how such models often drive demands for real world analogues to verify or disprove the In silico results and how pressure for field trials follows quickly on the heels of interesting modelling results. It is quite another matter when it comes to leaving the lab and pursuing experimentation "outside" as James Fleming usefully framed it last week at a forum in Montreal. As we have already seen in the case of ocean fertilization, scientists and companies are anxious to try out their theories in the real world on ever larger and larger scales and won’t take disappointing or downright negative results as a red light. In the case of ocean fertilization, despite 13 small trials with poor results and high-profile calls for caution, a rather large state-sponsored experiment (Lohafex) was given a green light as some sort of cause celebre for free scientific enquiry, despite the fact that that same state (Germany) has helped to broker a moratorium at the Convention on Biological diversity less than year earlier. That the results appeared to back up some of the reasons for the moratorium is not exactly cause for celebration. By that time any possible harm is already done. When it comes to the commons, like the atmosphere, the stratosphere or the oceans, surely a more robust system of regulation and governance would be required before "we" can allow a series of experiments to be launched. And while the recently announced UK and US Hearings into the question of governance of geoengineering, it would be the height of arrogance to think that such a process is a replacement for a global conversation. The order in which these things happen is of utmost importance and I would hope that there would be a consensus on ironing out these governance issues BEFORE real-world experimentation gets any serious consideration amongst responsible scientists. Indeed, given that the purpose of the UNFCCC is to "prevent dangerous anthopogenic interference with the climate system" (article 2), it could be argued that such experimentation directly contravenes the express purpose of the treaty. I am not qualified to make a legal assessment of that eventuality but surely the only (however flawed) international legal instrument we have on climate change cannot be ignored. But that is not all we have either. A quick scan of international institutions would reveal a number of treaties and international agencies with a direct interest in climate "intevention" ranging from the Environmental Modification Convention (ENMOD) to an agency like the FAO whose goal to eliminate hunger could be further set back by droughts provoked by stratospheric aerosol injections or poorly executed modifications of soil through biochar addition; or the Convention on Biological Diversity that has already expressed concerns about geoengineering, or the human rights system which aims to protect peoples rights to free, prior and informed consent or to health or food or other matter that could very well be affected not only by deployment, but even by experimentation. Obviously any country that might be affected would also want to have its say. And if we agree that some rules need to be determined before experimentation gets any consideration, we must be clear that such rules cannot be established only by scientists, only to be followed if people sign up to them and only to be followed when it suits a scientific programme to follow them. Exclusivity will not work. Elitism will not work. Voluntarism will not work. The discussion on governance cannot be led by scientists who will receive the research grants, corporations who will own the patents and institutions with close connections to the corporations. It must be democratic, participatory, informed and international. Those on the front line of the fight against climate change (think Arctic peoples, Indigenous Peoples, small island states, least developed countries, coastal peoples) need to be involved. For the most part, they have not participated in this conversation and are largely unaware it is even going on. Others on this list have made the point that silence should not be mistaken for consent. In this case, since you are seeking input on what should be prioritized, I would suggest that what is most urgently needed is some serious research on the international governance mechanisms that are currently in place, the gaps in terms of covering off the different geoengineering technologies that exist and the beginning of a plan for how a more comprehensive, democratic and sustainable approach could be devised should we ever be in the unimaginably horrible situation where deployment could be considered as a serious option. Also required is a throrough engagement with communities beyond this narrow technical community that allows those groups to bring their knowledge and their wisdom to bear upon the question of whether large scale climate intervention is a wise approach, not merely whether it is feasible. Determining the wisdom of the course of action should at least come before sinking large amounts of taxpayers money into building the mechanisms to deploy such systems. And never should such technologies be allowed to be privately owned or unilaterally experimented or deployed (as we know, with several of these technologies, experimentation IS deployment). Thank you for opening up this debate - I just think it should move beyond the technical and embrace some of the critical political questions that need to be asked prior to those technical issues. Regards -- Diana Bronson >> -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. 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