Ken,Am all for getting a statement together, but am unclear on where this would 
ultimately be aimed - policy makers, funding agencies, governments, the 
public/media? -  In any case may I suggest that post-Copenhagen would be an 
opportune time to lay an overview of the issues and needs on somebody's table, 
in the wake of what is shaping up to be a woefully inadequate response from 
world leaders. Another thought is to drop the geoengineering moniker (perhaps 
too much baggage) and use something else like climate intervention, or climate 
stabilization, or earth habitability assistance, or planet survival options, 
etc.  As we've just heard, "engineering" does not elicit a warm, fuzzy feeling 
in certain quarters.  -Greg

--- On Tue, 11/24/09, Ken Caldeira <[email protected]> wrote:

From: Ken Caldeira <[email protected]>
Subject: [geo] scale, scope, emphasis, and structure of research programs (or  
program)
To: "geoengineering" <[email protected]>
Date: Tuesday, November 24, 2009, 10:24 AM

Folks,

I think we are coming to a point where there is near-consensus that we need 
research into climate intervention.

However, I think there are very real differences over the scale, scope, 
emphasis, and structure of a proposed research program (or programs). 



Furthermore, there has been almost no discussion on the criteria by
which program areas,or proposed activities within those program areas,
would be prioritized.

I would like to open this discussion:

============

With regard to structure, I would suggest that there are several independent or 
quasi-independent research programs:


A. Approaches to remove carbon dioxide (and perhaps other
radiatively active gases) from the atmosphere (i.e., Carbon Dioxide
Removal methods)

A.1. Approaches that involve biological organisms to remove greenhouse gases 
from the atmosphere

A.2. Approaches that use chemical engineering methods to remove greenhouse 
gases from the atmosphere


B. Approaches to
directly intervene in Earth's energy flows or storage that do not work
primarily through changing greenhouse gas concentrations (i.e., Solar
Radiation Management methods)

------------

Program segments A and B are organized around tools that can be used to address 
problems. One could imagine another program element that is organized around 
assessing potential threats and possible responses:


C. Threat and response assessment

C.1. Ice sheet stability

C.2. Permafrost methane degassing

C.3. Changes in weather patterns that might disrupt agricultural productivity

C.4. etc

------------


I see little reason to link A, B, and C closely together and think they should 
be independent (or largely independent) programs. It is not clear that A.1 
needs to be closely linked to A.2.

===============


Regarding criteria for funding proposals or program elements within A, B, and 
C, some initial comments:

I think the criteria for funding under program element A (carbon dioxide 
removal and related approaches) should center on scalability, cost, and 
environmental consequences.


I think the criteria for funding under program element B (solar radiation 
management and related approaches) should center on scalability, rapidity of 
possible deployment, affordability, and environmental consequences.


I distinguish cost from affordability in that program elements A will, at least 
in the near term, compete with emissions avoidance, thus marginal cost is 
critical. However, program elements B might be used in an emergency situation 
where cost is secondary and, if it works, people might be in a bad enough 
situation that they might be willing to spend a large fraction of GDP on 
deployment.


==============

Does anybody else want to weigh in on scale, scope, emphasis, and structure of 
climate intervention research programs (or program)?

==============

Best,

Ken



___________________________________________________
Ken Caldeira

Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology
260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[email protected]; [email protected]

http://dge.stanford.edu/DGE/CIWDGE/labs/caldeiralab
+1 650 704 7212; fax: +1 650 462 5968  





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