Ken:

There is now a substantial bureaucracy associated with climate change
(inside and outside of government).  Like many in this group, they have a
hard core, unshakable belief that it is now too late to prevent climate
change, and thus they need to put their attention elsewhere.  Indeed, a
shift has already begun to move away from concern over carbon reduction to
concern over endangered species - complete with calls for an IPCC-like group
to address the issue and develop a "solution."

The only "solution" to climate change will now be adaptation, including
geoengineering.  Hence, no need to argue about it all that much any more,
especially since the money pipeline to climate alarmism is choked to
overflowing, allowing some bit of the excess to go to mitigation.

Personally, I believe we are going to see a more public push this fall as
the Arctic ice extent drops to only slightly above the 2007 levels.  That
alarm will only ring for a little over a year as a major recovery will occur
in the coming two years so the min in 11 and 12 will be a greater extent
than 09. NH ice is in a recovery, but in a herky jerk one step down, two
steps up fashion. The real turn in this will come in 10-15 years when the
AMO joins the PDO with cyclical cold in tandem.  By then, when
geoengineering might actually be available for implementation, we won't need
it.  But, just MHO.

David S.


On Tue, May 25, 2010 at 12:47 AM, Ken Caldeira <
[email protected]> wrote:
>
> Folks,
>
> I am surprised that the section on Solar Radiation Management the National
Academy's "Advancing the Science of Climate Change" report has received
almost no comment in this group or in the media.
>
> This is the first time in 18 years that the National Academies have
weighed in on geoengineering, and they do so by calling for research into
geoengineering and there is nary a mention in the press. The National
Academies call for research into solar radiation management and everyone
treats it as "ho-hum, what else is new?".
>
> (Eli Kintisch was an exception with a short post in ScienceInsider:
http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2010/05/national-academy-report-calls-fo.html
)
>
> I find it amazing that the US National Academies call for research into
geoengineering options and it is met with a yawn. Have we come to the point
where nearly everybody (except those involved in the CBD process) thinks it
is obvious this research is necessary?
>
> I think we have reached an important new milestone. Researching solar
radiation management has ceased to be controversial (although field testing
and deployment no doubt continues to be so).
>
> Comments?
>
> Best,
>
> Ken
>
> PS. Here is an extract.
>
> However, the various SRM proposals and their consequences need to be
examined, as long as such research does not replace or reduce research on
fundamental understanding of climate change or other approaches to limiting
climate change or adapting to its impacts. Some key SRM-related research
needs, discussed in Chapter 15, include the following:
>
>  Improve understanding of the physical potential and technical feasibility
of SRM and other geoengineering approaches.
>
> Evaluate the potential consequences of SRM approaches on other aspects of
the Earth system, including ecosystems on land and in the oceans.
>
> Develop and evaluate systems of governance that would provide a model for
how to decide whether, when, and how to intentionally intervene in the
climate system.
>
> Measure and evaluate public attitudes and develop approaches that
effectively inform and engage the public in decisions regarding SRM.
>
>
>
> On Wed, May 19, 2010 at 9:26 AM, Ken Caldeira <
[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>> See attached report summary from "Advancing the Science of Climate
Change" + sections on Solar Radiation Management
>>
>> http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12782
>>
>> Advancing the Science of Climate Change
>>
>> Status: Prepublication Available
>>
>> Size: 506 pages, 7 x 10
>>
>> Publication Year:2010
>>
>> Authors:
>> America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate
Change; National Research Council
>>
>> ------------------------------
>>
>> Prepublication - What is it?
>>
>> An uncorrected copy, or prepublication, is an uncorrected proof of the
book.
>>
>> ___________________________________________________
>> Ken Caldeira
>>
>> Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology
>> 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
>>
>> [email protected]
>> http://dge.stanford.edu/DGE/CIWDGE/labs/caldeiralab
>> +1 650 704 7212; fax: +1 650 462 5968
>>
>>
>
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David W. Schnare
Center for Environmental Stewardship

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