Dear Josh,
I would suggest that in the future we would all be better off without the term "moral hazard". Moral hazard, as I suspect you know, is a kind of market failure. The concept is perfectly useful for describing a class of problems that arise in insurance markets and other kinds of risk-spreading contracts. It does not, I would argue, fit the case of climate engineering (CE) at all well. The relative priority of climate engineering and GHG control is a matter of public policy. It does not involve insurance markets or contracting. The asymmetric knowledge, so typical of moral hazards, does not obtain. In fact, if CE works and does not cause unacceptable side effects, it would lower the expected damage from an adding a ton of CO2 to the atmosphere. As a result, optimal carbon tax rates or emission allowance prices would fall, and the optimal pace of controls would slow. True, even if CE works well, it may exhibit diminishing marginal returns, and it does not combat ocean acidification. Thus, controls retain some value; so does adaptation. The three approaches, as Scott Barrett has often noted, are imperfect substitutes. (Doing more of one implies doing less of the others, but there is a limit to how far that substitution can stretch.) Each of the three is likely to encounter rising marginal costs; hence, relying over-much on any one of them will lower over-all cost effectiveness. In this context, the term moral hazard adds nothing but confusion. Its misuse can be taken to imply that sole reliance on GHG control is somehow the correct response. Indeed the naïve may take it that controls are the only "moral" response. The more we think, speak, and write in these evocative but misleading terms the harder it becomes to see that climate policy should entail finding the most cost beneficial mix of strategies for dealing with a compound challenge in the face of uncertainty. Josh, I suspect that you know all of this; indeed, you could probably write it more articulately than I have. My guess is that you use the term merely as a convenience. Its misuse has seemed to take root in the debate about CE. Maybe it is too late to expunge it. Still, I would urge that we at least avoid sowing further confusion-even if it involves taking a little extra trouble to explain. Best regards, Lee Lane One of the more interesting findings pertains to the "moral hazard" argument against geoengineering, that is, people will embrace geoengineering as an excuse to avoid emissions reductions, and current levels of fossil fuel consumption will persist if not increase. Moral hazard has emerged as one of the principal arguments against climate engineering, despite the fact that geoengineering advocates generally support aggressive mitigation as the preferred option, and are quick to note the limitations of specific strategies, such as continued ocean acidification and the so-called "termination problem" in the case of stratospheric aerosol injections. Evidence from the public dialogue summarized in the NERC report indicates that participants viewed mitigation and geoengineering as complementary policies, not as mutually exclusive alternatives. Stakeholders saw a link between geoengineering and emissions controls, and preferred a suite of mitigation and geoengineering measures to reliance on any single approach. "This evidence is contrary to the 'moral hazard' argument that geoengineering would undermine popular support for mitigation or adaptation," notes the report. While this study represents only one set of empirical data gathered in one particular sociocultural context, it is to my knowledge the first time the moral hazard argument has been tested, and demonstrates little support for this proposition. Josh Horton [email protected] http://geoengineeringpolitics.blogspot.com/ On Sep 9, 10:45 am, Emily <[email protected]> wrote: > best wishes, > Emily. > > Dear Colleague, > > NERC has published the final report of Experiment Earth? , our public > dialogue on geoengineering. It can be found > at:http://www.nerc.ac.uk/about/consult/geoengineering.asptogether with a > short leaflet summarising the findings and recommendations from the report. > > The latest issue of NERC's Planet Earth magazine also contains an > article about the public dialogue, which can be found > here:http://planetearth.nerc.ac.uk/features/story.aspx?id=744 > > Regards, > > Peter > > Peter Hurrell > > Stakeholder Liaison Officer | Policy and Partnerships Team > > Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) > > Putting NERC science to use: find out more through NERC s Science > Impacts Database <http://sid.nerc.ac.uk/> > > -- > This message (and any attachments) is for the recipient only. NERC > is subject to the Freedom of Information Act 2000 and the contents > of this email and any reply you make may be disclosed by NERC unless > it is exempt from release under the Act. Any material supplied to > NERC may be stored in an electronic records management system. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en.
