If we're not going to launch the geoengineering Manhattan project until AFTER the tipping point, is there any way to be sure we can drag ourselves back up over the waterfall? Lenton's paper ( http://www.pnas.org/content/105/6/1786.abstract) lists various vulnerabilities, but I am unclear which, if any, can be reversed through geoengineering. Amazon dieback, ice sheet collapse and the excursion of methane from the cryosphere are perhaps the most worrisome potential tipping elements in this regard. I see no evidence that geoengineering can deal properly with any of these, once they have happened.
In my view, geoengineering research has thus far focussed on a rather linear climate response to increasing GHG concentrations. I can't see much evidence of research into how geoengineering can deal with non-linear events. This is particularly troubling when faced with the possibility that the passage of tipping points cannot necessarily be detected - much like a ground-floor fire can become a raging inferno whilst people rest peacefully two floors up. A PS can people please stop double-posting stuff unless it's ultra-important. Wouldn't like to put anyone on moderation, but if I have to I have to. On 30 September 2010 00:02, Joshua Horton <[email protected]> wrote: > Alvia, > > Don't confuse my flagging this story with a belief that we're on the verge > of some sort of geoengineering Manhattan Project. We're not. I'd be > surprised if there were any comprehensive research program before we crossed > a climate tipping point (take your pick). But that doesn't mean that > current work is inconsequential. And it doesn't mean that our national > political deadlock will automatically extend to geoengineering. A quick > look at the contributors to this group shows the potential for > unconventional coalitions that cross party lines and ideological boundaries. > What happens now sets the stage for what's to come, and we dismiss it at > our own peril. > > Josh > > > On Wed, Sep 29, 2010 at 12:47 PM, Alvia Gaskill <[email protected]>wrote: > >> Late 2012? Just after the presidential election where Barack Obama wins >> another 4 years of 10% unemployment and the endless winless war in >> Cavemanastan? Have you been following the recent news, Josh? Republicans >> will be taking over Congress soon. And these aren't the make deals behind >> closed doors Republicans we have all come to love and respect. Sen. Joe >> Miller, AK and Sen. Sharron Angle, NV. They want to eliminate Social >> Security. Sen. Joe Buck, CO. Sen. Linda McMahon, CT (she and I were born >> in the same small town, possibly the same hospital and our fathers may have >> worked together at one time), Sen. Carly Fiorina, CA (she was McCain's >> economic advisor until she told reporters he wasn't qualified to run a >> corporation. HP said the same about her). And there are others in both the >> House and Senate that are on the way. Little wonder Bart Gordon is running >> for the exits. >> >> You aren't a physical scientist, so as you have told me, you have to take >> the science at our word. But as a social scientist and I'm guessing, >> political scientist, you should be able to see the handwriting or is it >> handwringing on the wall. Liberals or progressives as they now want to be >> called, won't support any kind of research program that offers an >> alternative even for a short time to a cap and trade program. Cap and trade >> is dead for the next few years, unless they want to pass a bill that applies >> to one power plant and run it as some kind of fantasy league video game. >> I'll trade you one Tampa Electric for one AEP Mountaineer and a Shearron >> Harris nuclear, Josh. How about it? The Republican Party will be run by >> the tail wagging Tea Party faction that will be against spending of any >> kind, especially wasting money on their non-existent global warming problem. >> >> You're right, we have been down this road before, sort of. September >> 2001, Bush says no to geo and Kyoto and yes to endless wars. June 2004, DOE >> tells me and MacCracken and Caldeira and LBL to get lost. Three times in >> the last 5 years a bipartisan bill to get $10 million for cloud seeding >> research (for rainmaking in the parched SW U.S.) never made it out of >> committee. 2006, Pete Worden, on his own, authorized a meeting on geo. >> FOIA obtained e-mails showed that his bosses in Washington were not amused. >> 2008, Dave Schnare's bold attempt to get funding via a supplemental ended >> when the Sierra Club's rep redlined it out. >> >> All the senior managers at DOE and NASA need is some political cover and >> the hundred millions start to flow. Read the polls, boys. Read the polls. >> >> Of course, we all know that things in Washington sometimes move very >> slowly. Tom Davis, VA, now retired, remarked in 2008 that hearings on geo >> might be held in 2009. He was only off by one year. >> >> It may not matter. Isn't the world supposed to end in December 2012 >> anyway? Or was that the Kyoto Protocol. >> >> ----- Original Message ----- From: "Josh Horton" < >> [email protected]> >> To: "geoengineering" <[email protected]> >> Sent: Tuesday, September 28, 2010 4:46 >> Subject: [geo] Federal Research Program in 2012? >> >> >> (from http://geoengineeringpolitics.blogspot.com/) >>> >>> One of the featured speakers at yesterday's Future Tense Event in >>> Washington, D.C., was Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN). As Chairman of the >>> House Committee on Science and Technology, Gordon oversaw a series of >>> groundbreaking hearings on geoengineering over the past year. At the >>> conference Monday, Gordon raised the possibility of introducing a bill >>> to authorize a federal geoengineering research program, perhaps in >>> late 2012. Apart from Ehsan Khan's abortive attempt to initiate >>> research at DOE during the Bush Administration, this would constitute >>> the first federal proposal to sponsor and support research into the >>> feasibility of climate intervention strategies. >>> >>> I would like to see more details about this proposal. What funding >>> levels? Which technologies? Which agencies? How does this reconcile >>> with Gordon's plans to retire after this session of Congress? This is >>> potentially a very important development. >>> >>> Josh Horton >>> [email protected] >>> >>> -- >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >>> "geoengineering" group. >>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>> [email protected]<geoengineering%[email protected]> >>> . >>> For more options, visit this group at >>> http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. >>> >>> >> > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Climate Intervention" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]<climateintervention%[email protected]> > . > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/climateintervention?hl=en. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. 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