Even as a layman I can't understand why scientists everywhere aren’t hollering their heads off – perhaps it is because after studying and observing global warming proceed at a snails pace for decades, they have been lulled into a calm?
Methane levels in 2011 are 1.8 ppm, an atmospheric total of ~3.5 Gt C. As of 2009 methane fluxes in the ESAS are adding 3.5 Gt C to the atmosphere [1]. If i’m not mistaken, that has just doubled the atmospheric methane burden in a year, and tripled as of 2011. I don’t know how much of that gets oxidized. Releases of up to 50 Gt of hydrate is possible at any time [2]. Mixing time for methane is about a year, but major releases in the Arctic would take 15-40 years to spread to the South Pole [3]. Is the long mix time a good or bad thing? Would 3.5 Gt C be considered a major release? Methane focusing heating in the Arctic just speeds the whole melting process up. Once the heat pulse starts penetrating hydrate sediments, top-down cooling won't stop the process either [3]. James Hansen predicts 2012 will be the hottest year on record. I don’t see how methane release can go anywhere but up. With the number of recent earthquakes, could even greater releases be occurring unnoticed? I think the precautionary principle means we should be treating this as an emergency and have geoengineering capacity on standby. [1] http://symposium.serdp-estcp.org/content/download/8914/107496/version/1/file/1A_Shakhova_Final.pdf [2] http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU2008/01526/EGU2008-A-01526.pdf [3] http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering/attach/b9fcdd6ead8da6f3/Methane+Blowout+Events.pdf?part=4 [4] http://climateprogress.org/2011/04/11/extreme-warming-temperature-map/ On Apr 16, 2:51 pm, John Nissen <[email protected]> wrote: > Hi Alvia, > > I said: "we are now in a desperate situation calling for emergency action". > > You dispute this. Thanks for your honest opinion about the gravity, or > otherwise, of the situation as you see it. But isn't your opinion > rather wishful thinking? > <snip> -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en.
