Scary stuff - here's a link to the SWIPA Executive Summary: http://www.amap.no/swipa/SWIPA2011ExecutiveSummaryV1.pdf
Josh On May 3, 10:03 pm, "Rau, Greg" <[email protected]> wrote: > Arctic melting faster, could raise sea 5 feet by 2100 > > STOCKHOLM (AP) — Arctic ice is melting faster than expected and could raise > the average global sea level by as much as five feet this century, an > authoritative new report suggests. > > The study by the international Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program, or > AMAP, is one of the most comprehensive updates on climate change in the > Arctic, and builds on a similar assessment in 2005. > > The full report will be delivered to foreign ministers of the eight Arctic > nations next week, but an executive summary including the key findings was > obtained by The Associated Press on Tuesday. > > It says that Arctic temperatures in the past six years were the highest since > measurements began in 1880, and that feedback mechanisms believed to > accelerate warming in the climate system have now started kicking in. > > One mechanism involves the ocean absorbing more heat when it's not covered by > ice, which reflects the sun's energy. That effect has been anticipated by > scientists "but clear evidence for it has only been observed in the Arctic in > the past five years," AMAP said. > > The report also shatters some of the forecasts made in 2007 by the U.N.'s > expert panel on climate change. > > The cover of sea ice on the Arctic > Ocean<http://content.usatoday.com/topics/topic/Places,+Geography/Bodies+of+...>, > for example, is shrinking faster than projected by the U.N. panel. The level > of summer ice coverage has been at or near record lows every year since 2001, > AMAP said, predicting that the Arctic Ocean will be nearly ice free in summer > within 30-40 years. > > Its assessment also said the U.N. panel was too conservative in estimating > how much sea levels will rise — one of the most closely watched aspects of > global warming because of the potentially catastrophic impact on coastal > cities and island nations. > > The melting of Arctic glaciers and ice caps, including Greenland's massive > ice sheet, are projected to help raise global sea levels by 35 to 63 inches > (90-160 centimeters) by 2100, AMAP said, though it noted that the estimate > was highly uncertain. > > That's up from a 2007 projection of 7 to 23 inches (19-59 centimeters) by the > U.N. panel, which didn't consider the dynamics of ice caps in the Arctic and > Antarctica. > > "The observed changes in sea ice on the Arctic Ocean, in the mass of the > Greenland ice sheet and Arctic ice caps and glaciers over the past 10 years > are dramatic and represent an obvious departure from the long-term patterns," > AMAP said in the executive summary. > > The organization's main function is to advise the nations surrounding the > Arctic — the U.S., Canada, Russia, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Iceland and > Finland — on threats to the Arctic environment. > > The findings of its report — Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic — > will be discussed by some of the scientists who helped compile it at a > conference starting Wednesday in the Danish capital, Copenhagen. > > In the past few years, scientists have steadily improved ways of measuring > the loss of ice into the oceans. > > In research reported in March in the journal Geophysical Research > Letters<http://content.usatoday.com/topics/topic/Geophysical+Research+Letters>, > U.S. and European scientists used two independent methods to corroborate > their findings: the on-the-ground measurement of ice thickness and movements > using GPS stations and other tools, and the measurement of ice mass through > gravity readings from satellites. > > That team, led by Eric Rignot of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, projected > that the accelerating melt of the vast Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets > would itself raise sea levels by about 6 inches (15 centimeters) by 2050. > Adding in other factors — expansion of the oceans from warming and runoff > from other glaciers worldwide — would raise sea levels a total of some 13 > inches (32 centimeters) by 2050, they said. > > They did not project sea levels to 2100 because of long-range uncertainties. > > Currents, winds and other forces would make sea-level rise vary globally, but > Bangladesh, Florida and other such low-lying areas and coastal cities > worldwide would be hard hit. > > The AMAP report said melting glaciers and ice sheets worldwide have become > the biggest contributor to sea level rise. Greenland's ice sheet alone > accounted for more than 40 percent of the 0.12 inches (3.1 millimeters) of > sea-level rise observed annually between 2003 and 2008, AMAP said. > > It said the yearly mass loss from Greenland's ice sheet, which covers an area > the size of Mexico, increased from 50 gigatons in 1995-2000 to more than 200 > gigatons in 2004-2008. > > Scientists are still debating how much of the changes observed in the Arctic > are due to natural variances and how much to warming caused by the release of > carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. AMAP projected that average fall > and winter temperatures in the Arctic will climb by 5.4-10.8 F (3-6 C) by > 2080, even if greenhouse gas emissions are lower than in the past decade. > > ———— > > AP Special Correspondent Charles J. Hanley in New York contributed to this > report. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. 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