And let's not forget this one,
Lebassi, Bereket, Jorge González, Drazen Fabris, Edwin Maurer, Norman
Miller, Cristina Milesi, Paul Switzer, Robert Bornstein, 2009: Observed
1970--2005 Cooling of Summer Daytime Temperatures in Coastal California.
/J. Climate/, *22*, 3558--3573. doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2111.1
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008JCLI2111.1
which shows that global warming has enhanced the flow of maritime air
into San Francisco Bay and up into Napa, wih cooling rather than warming
locally. Thus the wine may not be at as much risk as coarser analyses show.
Alan
Alan Robock, Professor II (Distinguished Professor)
Editor, Reviews of Geophysics
Director, Meteorology Undergraduate Program
Associate Director, Center for Environmental Prediction
Department of Environmental Sciences Phone: +1-732-932-9800 x6222
Rutgers University Fax: +1-732-932-8644
14 College Farm Road E-mail: [email protected]
New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8551 USA http://envsci.rutgers.edu/~robock
On 7/3/2011 2:26 PM, Ken Caldeira wrote:
And let's not forget this one:
Cahill, K.N. and C. B. Field. 2008. Future of the wine industry:
Climate change science. Practical Winery and Vineyard *29 #6*:16-33.
They too neglected to mention the paper that Tom co-authored.
___________________________________________________
Ken Caldeira
Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology
260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
+1 650 704 7212 [email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>
http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab @kencaldeira
On Fri, Jul 1, 2011 at 11:56 PM, Tom Wigley <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
As far as I know, the first paper to look at wine quality
in a future global warming world was our 1983 paper, attached.
Tom (hic!).
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
On 7/1/2011 12:53 PM, Rau, Greg wrote:
another reason we need GE. - Greg
*Global warming no friend of California wines: study
*By Emmett Berg
SAN FRANCISCO | Fri Jul 1, 2011 6:03pm IST
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Global warming could make it more
difficult
for California's prized Napa Valley to make high quality wines
over the
next 30 years, but could improve grape-growing in Oregon, a study
published on Thursday suggests.
A research team led by Stanford University scientists examined
four
premium wine-growing counties in the West.
Those were Santa Barbara County and the Napa Valley in California,
Yamhill County in Oregon's Willamette Valley and Walla Walla
County in
Washington state's Columbia Valley.
The scientists, whose study appeared in the journal Environmental
Research Letters, applied climate models and historical
weather data to
predict how global warming would affect those fertile regions.
They assumed a 23 percent increase in atmospheric greenhouse
gases by
2040. That is a conservative scenario, amounting to a 1.8 degree
Fahrenheit rise in average global temperature, said study
co-author Noah
Diffenbaugh, an assistant professor of earth sciences at Stanford
University.
In northern California's Napa Valley, one of the world's best
wine-making regions and a key contributor to the state's $18.5
billion
wine industry, the results of climate change could be dramatic.
An uptick of 2 degrees Fahrenheit over 30 years could shift
half the
lands hospitable to pinot noir or cabernet sauvignon beyond the
acceptable band of temperatures required for those high quality
varieties, which is typically around 68 degrees, according to
the study.
"We do see a shift in Napa," Diffenbaugh said. The hotter
weather would
reduce the quality of the grapes.
Hotter weather also was predicted to reduce suitable grape-growing
acreage in California's Santa Barbara County and the Columbia
Valley in
Washington.
But warmer conditions would significantly increase
opportunities for
high-quality grape growing in the Willamette Valley in Oregon,
where
conditions at present are considered too cool for some premium
wines,
according to the study.
Still, the researchers' forecast is no guarantee the
Willamette Valley
will become the next Napa.
"A lot more than temperature goes into making wine,"
Diffenbaugh said.
"But temperature is one consistent factor across the
highest-quality wines."
A 2006 climate study projected that as much as 81 percent of
premium
wine grape acreage in the United States could become
unsuitable for some
varietals by the end of the century.
This latest study looks at effects of climate change on the wine
industry over a shorter time frame, more in-line with what
growers would
use to make decisions, Diffenbaugh said.
(Editing by Alex Dobuzinskis and Greg McCune)
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