Dear Charles,
This CARVE project looks extremely interesting for filling in gaps in
our knowledge of the Arctic system [1]. I am particularly interested
in the methane component of this system, since I have organised a
workshop on this subject, for weekend 15-16th October, here in Chiswick,
London W4.
We have some limited idea of high concentrations of methane at latitude
80N from HIPPO, indicating over 1900 ppb methane at low level [2].
However this is apparently contradicted by GISS data obtained by Sam
Carana [3], suggesting that the methane has collected in the
stratosphere. Sam has a theory that this methane has been emitted as
the result of seismic activity. And he thinks that this methane is
causing surface warming of up to 10 degrees C. I'm not entirely
convinced by either theory: the seismic origin or the cause of surface
warming. However this Arctic warming is alarming if true, especially
since the scientific consensus has it that polar amplification produces
two times global warming, which suggests only 1.6 degrees C!
I would like to see some discussion of the GISS data, since it is so
remarkable and has such implications. How was the data obtained? How
much methane is there, from where is the methane originating, what
effect is it having on temperature and atmospheric chemistry (e.g. ozone
and water vapour), and what is in store for the future?
What does Professor Jim Hansen think of all this? Presumably he's seen
the data.
BTW, are you aware of the work of Ivar Isaksen et al [4], which suggests
that methane, in high atmospheric concentration, will have large
indirect radiative forcing effects through atmospheric chemistry?
Kind regards,
John
Tel: +44 20 8742 3170
Skype: john.nissen4
P.S. These questions are extremely relevant to the Arctic methane
workshop, so I am copying this to the geoengineering list and others to
get feedback in advance of the London workshop.
[1] http://science.nasa.gov/missions/carve/
[2]
http://people.seas.harvard.edu/~swofsy/HIAPER_Pole_to_Pole_accepted.pdf
<http://people.seas.harvard.edu/%7Eswofsy/HIAPER_Pole_to_Pole_accepted.pdf>
[3]
http://knol.google.com/k/sam-carana/methane-linked-to-seismic-activity-in/7y50rvz9924j/85#
[4]
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/academics/classes/2011Q2/558/IsaksenGB2011.pdf
---
On 05/10/2011 14:13, leonid yurganov wrote:
Hi Charles,
I attached a draft agenda for the meeting I mentioned about last time.
The organizer is John Nissen ([email protected]). I will participate
via Skype on Saturday, 15 October. I think that it would be
interesting for attendees to be informed about CARVE. I recommend you
contacting John.
I will send you a copy of my report as soon as it is ready.
Leonid
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