I'm no economist, but isn't this an amazing market disconnect? The need for CO2 mitigation highest ever, the market value of mitigation plummets. So much for market and policy driven CO2 response. Lack of effective PR, lobbying, and outreach I think is to blame, an no, this is not the primary job of scientists. It apparently takes Madison Ave, K Str, PACs, and lots of money and/or a major climate crisis (by which time it's probably too late). May we have a more successful year in '12. Greg
[http://www.reuters.com/resources/images/logo_reuters_media_us.gif]<http://www.reuters.com> Analysts slash CO2 price forecasts as slowdown seen - poll<http://uk.reuters.com/article/email/idUKTRE7BS0R320111229> Thu Dec 29 16:54:30 UTC 2011 By Jeff Coelho LONDON (Reuters) - Analysts have slashed their average price forecasts for European Union and U.N. carbon for next year and beyond as prospects of a slowing global economy and permit oversupply concerns persist, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday. Analysts cut their average forecasts for prices of EU Allowances (EUAs) in the first half of 2012 by 30 percent to 9.33 euros ($12.08) a tonne versus a poll a month earlier. Forecasts for EUA prices in the 2013-2020 trading period, known as the third phase, were reduced by nearly a third to 16.16 euros a tonne. Carbon prices have lost about half their value this year, as the euro zone's fiscal crisis crippled demand in a market that many analysts say is oversupplied with hundreds of millions of EUAs and U.N.-backed credits. The benchmark front-year contract, which hit a record low of 6.30 euros on December 14, was trading under 8 euros a tonne on Thursday. Weak prices have prompted calls by some lawmakers and environmental groups to tackle the supply glut by withholding EUAs or tightening the annual cap on emissions in the third phase of the bloc's emissions trading scheme. The European Parliament's environment committee on December 20 approved a proposal to withhold 1.4 billion permits from the 2013-2020 trading period, a decision that boosted carbon prices by some 20 percent on the day. The vote "was a step in the right direction, but only a preliminary step," said Isabelle Curien, a carbon analyst at Deutsche Bank. "Nothing is secured yet," she said, noting the measure may never become law as it faces tougher resistance in further parliament votes next year. Other analysts were also reluctant to factor in the prospect of some kind of supply intervention in their latest price forecasts. "This forecast does not include any set-aside or tightening of the cap whatsoever," said Ingo Tschach, managing director at Tschach Solutions in Germany. "A final position decision on set-aside volumes would obviously increase our price forecasts." Trevor Sikorski, the head of carbon research at Barclays Capital, said the willingness by some lawmakers to tighten supply could influence the incoming EU presidency to put the issue high on the agenda. Denmark takes over the rotating EU presidency on January 1. "We believe the Danish presidency of the EU starting in January may just look at this as something achievable during its time at the helm," Sikorski said in a research note last week. "Finally, a reason not just to be short," he added, referring to market participants who have been expecting carbon prices to fall in recent months. Analysts also lowered forecasts for the average prices of U.N.-backed Certified Emission Reductions (CERs), with prices for the first half of 2012 lowered by 21 percent to 6.64 euros a tonne from last month's poll. For the 2013-2020, analysts cut their CER price forecasts by 30 percent to 12.47 euros. Front-year CERs were trading around 4.30 euros on Thursday. (Reporting by Jeff Coelho; additional reporting by Michael Szabo; editing by Jason Neely) This service is not intended to encourage spam. The details provided by your colleague have been used for the sole purpose of facilitating this email communication and have not been retained by Thomson Reuters. Your personal details have not been added to any database or mailing list. If you would like to receive news articles delivered to your email address, please subscribe at www.reuters.com/newsmails<http://www.reuters.com/newsmails> © Copyright Thomson Reuters 2011 All rights reserved. Users may download and print extracts of content from this website for their own personal and non-commercial use only. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters and its logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of the Thomson Reuters group of companies around the world. Quotes and other data are provided for your personal information only, and are not intended for trading purposes. Thomson Reuters and its data providers shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the quotes or other data, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en.
