Ken Caldeira wrote:
>> It is an impossible task to estimate GDP in year 12 in current
dollar terms, but it would nevertheless be interesting to try to
estimate economic growth rates on the millennial time scale. This might
provide an effective long-term discount rate that both environmentalists
and economists could live with.<<
The economist Angus Maddison did a lot of work in reconstructing
historical GDP. (He died about two years ago.) An introduction is here:
http://www.theworldeconomy.org/ .
He found only ~50% change in real GDP from 1000-1820 AD, and an 8-fold
increase since then. (The latter works out to an average of about 1% per
year.) Of course, there are a lot of ifs and buts -- most important is
where you happen to be born. So while those in developed countries might
be 3 times wealthier in 100 years and so better able to cope with the
climate change we are causing, the larger numbers in undeveloped
countries (who will be wealthier too) might be starting from too low a
level to effectively cope. The assumption that the future will be able
to cope with climate change because they are wealthier is simplistic --
some will, some won't, and everything in-between.
David
--
David Appell, independent science journalist
e: [email protected]
w: http://www.davidappell.com
m: St. Helens, OR USA
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