May I make the reminder that their group is not called the Arctic "Sea
Ice" Emergency Group,
but the Arctic Methane Emergency Group?

The primary issue in all this is: what is happening with arctic
methane
emissions right now. That's what matters here. Criticizing PIOMAS or
whatever is what Al Gore
made into effectively exploding fish in the newest version of his
slideshow - red herrings.
Connelley's blog hardly addresses methane, and nor do these various
posts either, to a degree
that is, frankly, a little odd.

For the record, if I were in the group and asked my opinion of them,
I'd recommend against the
sea ice loss statements in question, in part because even if the ice
losses evolved as predicted, it could end up being more as
a consequence and not as a driver. That is, methane increases and sea
ice losses are looped, but
in complex ways, and the group makes it sound as though it's a one-way
street, sea ice loss leading to more methane releases.
It should hardly be controversial to say that if there ARE really
major methane releases there that the paper Ken attached will no
longer be relevant.
And thus far the news on the ground makes AMEG seem like quite a
rational enterprise, since from what we know it looks
relatively probable (much more than so than anyone should be
complacent about) that there are rapidly increasing methane
excursions going on there.

The thing that really matters here for AMEG in terms of expertise and
credibility is what Shakhova
and Semiletov have been finding in the ESAS region. They are there
again right now, and what they see
is what will be important. Those wishing to critique the legitimacy of
their group should really have things to add
to the discussion about those methane releases.

Best,

Nathan



On Mar 18, 3:43 pm, Andrew Revkin <[email protected]> wrote:
> I'm with Stoat, Ken Caldeira, David Keith, Alan Robock and others who see
> this "emergency" effort to rush cloud intervention in the Arctic on behalf
> of sea ice (and indirectly seabed methane) as undermining the case for a
> serious push on geo-engineering options, impacts and policy issues. You're
> getting headlines and the attention of factions in Parliament now, but just
> wait until the variability kicks the other way.
>
>
>
> "Yelling fire on a hot 
> planet"<http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/23/weekinreview/23revkin.html?_r=2>can 
> have unanticipated consequences.

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