This is interesting - exploring the possibility of an an explosive
internal tipping point in permafrost compost which cannot be stopped
by changes in external temperature.

http://rspa.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/467/2129/1243
Excitability in ramped systems: the compost-bomb instability
S. Wieczorek*, P. Ashwin, C. M. Luke and P. M. Cox

The paper studies a novel excitability type where a large excitable
response appears when a system’s parameter is varied gradually, or
ramped, above some critical rate. This occurs even though there is a
(unique) stable quiescent state for any fixed setting of the ramped
parameter. We give a necessary and a sufficient condition for the
existence of a critical ramping rate in a general class of slow–fast
systems with folded slow (critical) manifold. Additionally, we derive
an analytical condition for the critical rate by relating the
excitability threshold to a canard trajectory through a folded saddle
singularity. The general framework is used to explain a potential
climate tipping point termed the ‘compost-bomb instability’—an
explosive release of soil carbon from peatlands into the atmosphere
occurs above some critical rate of global warming even though there is
a unique asymptotically stable soil carbon equilibrium for any fixed
atmospheric temperature.

excitability singular perturbation theory

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