List:
1. I found this 70+ slide Ppt by Kevin Anderson (the attachment to Andrew's
posting about 14 hours ago) to be a most interesting presentation. It suffers
by having no voice. I have not yet found when or where it was presented.
In following up, I found that his (and Alice Bows') 2011 paper on same topics
is free at:.
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20.full.pdf
Also I found that a well-done 27 minute video (showing both him talking and the
slides) from 2009 (cited in his Wiki article - as #6) is available at
http://media.podcasts.ox.ac.uk/ouce/4degrees/session_10_1_anderson.mp4?CAMEFROM=moxacuk
A similar 55 minute video (but with only slides and voice) from 2012 is at:
http://vimeo.com/39555673 (newest and longest, so possibly a good place to
start)
2. His argument consistently is that holding global temperature increase to 2
degrees is almost impossible - and that we certainly don't want 4 degrees,
which we are heading for. Not at all encouraging - and he makes a convincing
case on what is likely to be accomplished - based on past experience. He is an
excellent presenter.
3. I have not looked at any of the above in great depth - but believe he barely
discusses SRM. CDR was mentioned in one of the above - but not biochar. I read
and heard almost no discussion on wind, solar PV, biomass, or other RE
technologies.
My tentative conclusion is that has underestimated how much longer the recent
large annual growth rate of RE technologies can be continued. I believe the
average annual growth rate for the Wind and Photovoltaics technologies for the
past 5 years has been about 30% and 50%. Should those rates continue, we can
certainly fill the energy "bucket" by 2030 or sooner. However, he discounts the
ability to move as fast as 10% per year in reducing CO2 emissions. I think it
can be larger if the need for an early CO2 peak is taken seriously.
In the biochar area of CDR, I think that the price projections given at
www.coolplanetbiofuels will provide even faster growth and a very short
doubling time. They can start soon since the biofuel version can be identical
to the fossil. Anderson has no discussion I think on land availability and
productivity; his is a higher level modeling.
4. I like that much of these presentations are on the complexities of handling
Annex-1 and non-Annex-1 countries differently. We need more like this.
Ron
----- Original Message -----
From: "RAU greg" <gh...@sbcglobal.net>
To: mmacc...@comcast.net, "Geoengineering" <Geoengineering@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Sunday, September 16, 2012 12:58:32 PM
Subject: Re: [geo] Tyndall center presentation on 4C future
Andrew and Mike,
Thanks for the recommendations.
" Without even trying the type of effort that is suggested, history will likely
be very hard on today’s (and yesterday’s—covering a couple of decades)
leaders." This would seem the root of the problem because the leaders (and the
rest of us) won't be around to suffer the consequences (or reap the benefits)
of present actions toward CO2. This begs the question how much are humans
willing to sacrifice now for future generations? How much do we discount future
consequences of present actions? Up until now the answer is "alot". I'm not
sure this can or will change any time soon, but it would be interesting the
hear of any historical examples (or econ theory). Otherwise, as with pond scum,
it looks like we are still stuck in the +2B year bio tradition of letting
future generations fend for themselves.
-Greg
From: Mike MacCracken <mmacc...@comcast.net>
To: Geoengineering <Geoengineering@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Sun, September 16, 2012 9:50:16 AM
Subject: Re: [geo] Tyndall center presentation on 4C future
Re: [geo] Tyndall center presentation on 4C future As a follow-up to the
disturbing (but forthright) Tyndall Center presentation, I’d suggest reading a
plan for actually making the changes needed to make a significant difference in
the climate change trajectory. My recommendation would be to read the book
“World on the Edge: How to Prevent Environmental and Economic Collapse” by
Lester R. Brown. It is available as a pdf file at
http://www.earth-policy.org/images/uploads/book_files/wotebook.pdf
Yes, a real challenge, but plausible. What is most needed is leadership and
commitment, so at least we make a good try at limiting global warming and the
associated problems he talks about, namely water resources, food, and soils.
Without even trying the type of effort that is suggested, history will likely
be very hard on today’s (and yesterday’s—covering a couple of decades) leaders.
Mike MacCracken
On 9/16/12 5:18 AM, "Andrew Lockley" < andrew.lock...@gmail.com > wrote:
By way of climatic and political background, this may interest some members
A
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