Hi Dr. D--As the article about the paper notes, this idea was explored about 40-50 years ago. It turned out then that there was a real problem in closing the set of equations---that is, in figuring out a way to write an equation for, for example, the statistical deviation of a flow, etc.
Even assuming that the authors are successful in closing the set of equations, it seems to me they are too late. The interest is no longer in how the overall climate will change (that is the broad statistics they would be generating), but in the details of the changes in the kinds of weather that are likely. Basically, we live the changes in the weather‹the changes in climate just give changes in the long-term average and, while they determine some types of impacts, the real key is in how the weather is changing (that is, the typical sequencing of the weather, etc.). So, a general finding that summertime precipitation in the northeastern US is going to increase is really not very useful information‹did it all occur in one storm, how is it spread over the season, how much did evaporation go up, and lots more? So, overall, might well be interesting for doing climate change studies over millions of year period, etc., but for projecting 21st century climate change, my sense is that we really want to be able to see what the details will look like (even though, to date, we have been doing too little analysis of all of this). Mike M On 3/5/13 10:20 PM, "Dr D" <[email protected]> wrote: > I am curious what climate modelers think of the following paper.... Basically, > the authors want to simulate climate forcers rather than every single area in > a climate model.... Climate scientists might have missed this paper as it was > published in a physics journal.... > > Summary for the public: > http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/03/130305145807.htm > > Ref: S. M. Tobias, J. B. Marston. Direct Statistical Simulation of > Out-of-Equilibrium Jets. Physical Review Letters, -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
