Hi All
The best way to stop all this distressing worry about CO2 is to do
nothing about the Arctic warming and let the methane take over as the
main climate driver. Our dear leaders are doing exactly that.
Stephen
Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design School of Engineering
University of Edinburgh Mayfield Road Edinburgh EH9 3JL Scotland
[email protected] Tel +44 (0)131 650 5704 Cell 07795 203 195
WWW.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs
On 14/04/2013 12:30, Andrew Lockley wrote:
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-012-0680-5
Poster's note - I intend to serialize the Climatic Change special
edition abstracts for 'bite-sized' regular engagement. If anyone
thinks this is unnecessary repetition (as links already posted),
please reply-email me personally with 'stop' in body or subject. Thx,
A
The role of negative CO2 emissions for reaching 2 °C—insights from
integrated assessment modelling
Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sebastiaan Deetman, Jasper van Vliet, Maarten
van den Berg, Bas J. van Ruijven, Barbara Koelbl
Abstract
Limiting climate change to 2 °C with a high probability requires
reducing cumulative emissions to about 1600 GtCO2 over the 2000–2100
period. This requires unprecedented rates of decarbonization even in
the short-run. The availability of the option of net negative
emissions, such as bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)
or reforestation/afforestation, allows to delay some of these emission
reductions. In the paper, we assess the demand and potential for
negative emissions in particular from BECCS. Both stylized
calculations and model runs show that without the possibility of
negative emissions, pathways meeting the 2 °C target with high
probability need almost immediate emission reductions or simply become
infeasible. The potential for negative emissions is uncertain. We show
that negative emissions from BECCS are probably limited to around 0 to
10 GtCO2/year in 2050 and 0 to 20 GtCO2/year in 2100. Estimates on the
potential of afforestation options are in the order of 0–4 GtCO2/year.
Given the importance and the uncertainty concerning BECCS, we stress
the importance of near-term assessments of its availability as today’s
decisions has important consequences for climate change mitigation in
the long run.
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