Poster's note: Hopefully the author (see cc ) will be kind enough to submit her paper to this list, as I lack a URL or copy
Citation Couce, EM, Irvine, PJ, Gregorie, L, Ridgwell, AJ & Hendy, E 2013, ‘Tropical coral reef habitat in a geoengineered, high-CO2world’. Geophysical Research Letters, vol 40. Abstract Continued anthropogenic CO2 emissions are expected to impact tropical coral reefs by further raising sea surface temperatures (SST) and intensifying ocean acidification (OA). Although geoengineering by means of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) may mitigate temperature increases, OA will persist, raising important questions regarding the impact of different stressor combinations. We apply statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models to project changes in shallow-water tropical coral reef habitat as a single niche (without resolving biodiversity or community composition) under various Representative Concentration Pathway and SRM scenarios, until 2070. We predict substantial reductions in habitat suitability centered on the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool under net anthropogenic radiative forcing of ≥3.0 W/m2. The near-term dominant risk to coral reefs is increasing SSTs; below 3 W/m2 reasonably favorable conditions are maintained, even when achieved by SRM with persisting OA. ‘Optimal’ mitigation occurs at 1.5 W/m2 because tropical SSTs over-cool in a fully-geoengineered (i.e. pre-industrial global mean temperature) world. Key Points: • Large reductions in reef habitat suitability under net radiative forcing >3 W/m2 • Rising SSTs are greater threat for tropical coral reefs than ocean acidification • Solar Radiation Management may help maintain coral reef habitat over near-term -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
