What this shows is that keyword occurrence in news coverage is a lagging indicator that is overwhelmed by periodic procedural stories such as COP and is not sensitive in a timely way to the recent upsurge in interest in geoengineering. This is what happens when you choose available metrics. One would need much more granular data from much different set of sources to capture what is actually happening in near real time.
--- Fred Zimmerman Geoengineering IT! Bringing together the worlds of geoengineering and information technology GE NewsFilter: http://geoengineeringIT.net:8080 On Sat, Jun 8, 2013 at 8:40 PM, Andrew Lockley <[email protected]>wrote: > Click the link! This makes no sense without the graphs! > > > https://blogs.nottingham.ac.uk/makingsciencepublic/2013/06/05/mitigation-adaptation-geoengineering-patterns-of-discourse-patterns-of-mystery/ > > Mitigation, adaptation, geoengineering: Patterns of discourse, patterns of > mystery > > This blog relates more to an ESRC project on climate change than to the > Leverhulme project on climate change and scepticism, but I think there is a > tangential link. As part of the ESRC project, we are interested in finding > patterns in climate change communication and policy over time and across > countries. In that context I wanted to examine patterns of discourse (and > in the first instance ‘simple’ word usage), related to three major > strategies discussed in the context of the management of climate > change: climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation and > geoengineering. My hypothesis was that mitigation has been discussed for > the longest time but may have gradually been superseded by discourses of > adaptation, and more recently proposals to use geoengineering as a solution > of last resort. So I set out to see what patterns were out there and > whether they would confirm my hypothesis or not. And the more I looked the > more confused I became.First I looked at Google Trends and got the > following results (on 1 June, 2013) (blue represents climate change > adaptation, red climate change mitigation and yellow geoengineering). The > first surprise was that the highest volume in interest was in climate > change adaptation and that this interest emerged before interest in climate > change mitigation. The pattern for geoengineering conforms more to my own > impressions, with a first real peak shortly after the publication of > the Royal Society report, followed by other peaks probably related to > the SPICE project etc.I then turned to Google Ngram viewer (also 1 June, > 2013) which charts the volume of words or phrases used in google books over > time. When I searched English language publications, I found that the > volume of hits for climate change mitigation was higher than for climate > change adaptation*, which was more what I had expected, but there were > peaks in unexpected places. I expected a peak in 2006 and 2007, that is in > the years when climate change coverage peaked according to many > researchers, such as Max Boykoff (followed by another peak prompted by the > climategate affair).Things became more interesting when I chose American > English and British English to carry out the searches. As shown in an > article by Nerlich, Forsyth and Clarke, the UK and the US really are two > nations divided by a common language, especially when it comes to > discussing climate change. British English discourse about climate change > mitigation peaked after the 1997 Kyoto protocol, with another peak around > 2002; and climate change adaptation has been trying to catch up with > mitigation since 2007. By contrast, American English interest in > geoengineering peaked in 1992 but trends around climate change adaptation, > climate change mitigation and geoengineering have been rather flat ever > since.We (that is, one of my PhD students, Ruijing Li and I) then examined > news coverage using Lexis Nexis. We searched this news database with the > search terms adaption/mitigation/geoengineering and climate change or > global warming** (on a high similarity setting) and focusing on English > Language News. We expected to see some fluctuations, but what we found was > just a steady and then almost exponential rise after 2006 of the use of > adaptation and mitigation (in the context of climate change or global > warming), with geoengineering not really getting a look in. Surprisingly, > there was more discussion of adaption rather than mitigation from the very > start of the climate change debate in 1988 (Jaspal and Nerlich, > 2012).During her searches Ruijing found that there were some ‘seasonal’ > fluctuations. These turned out to be less mysterious than we originally > thought, as they are linked to regular COP meetings at the end of each > year (and a nice peak in 2009) (thanks @ruth_dixon for alerting us to this) > – here now with new graph covering all months for three years from 2009 to > 2011 (originally we only did some ‘stratified sampling’, as @LeoHickman > called so nicely it on twitter) (and if there is time we’ll do a longer > time line in the future, but I don’t think the fluctuations will be very > different):This still leaves some other mysteries to be solved! > Comments welcome! > > *I could not search for ‘adaptation’ etc. alone (too many hits), so had to > search for climate change adaptation (so numbers became quite low). > Geoengineering is better in that respect! > > *On Lexis Nexis you can use a combination of search terms to probe a > certain topic. > > Added 5 July, afternoon, after interesting suggestions on twitter > by @WarrenPearce @cwhope @LeoHickman @BarryJWoods @JimDensham – it might be > worth looking at alternative words, such as abatement, prevention, coping… > quick check on Google Trends and ngram viewer show low numbers, but made me > think that my search strategy might have been hampered by the fact that I > can’t just search for mitigation, but had to search for climate change > mitigation, see * above – unless somebody has another idea. > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. > > > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
