http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD019724/abstract

Keywords:

volcanic aerosol radiative forcing;carbon cycle;Earth system modeling

Abstract

[1] Large volcanic eruptions can have a significant cooling effect on
climate, which is evident in both modern and palaeo data. However, due to
the difficulty of disentangling volcanic and other influences in the modern
atmospheric CO2 record, and uncertainties associated with palaeo
reconstructions of atmospheric CO2, the magnitude of the carbon cycle
response to volcanically induced climatic changes is difficult to quantify.
In this study, three Earth System Models (SIMEARTH, CLIMBER-2, and CLIMBER
LPJ) are used to simulate the effects of different magnitudes of volcanic
eruption, from relatively small (e.g., Mount Pelée, 1902) to very large
(e.g., the 1258 ice core event), on the coupled global climate-carbon cycle
system. These models each use different, but justifiable, parameterizations
to simulate the global carbon cycle and climate. Key differences include
how soil respiration and net primary productivity respond to temperature
and atmospheric CO2. All models simulate global surface cooling in response
to volcanic events. In response to a Mount Pinatubo-equivalent eruption,
the modelled temperature decrease is 0.3°C to 0.4°C and atmospheric
CO2 decreases by 1.1 ppm to 3.4 ppm. The initial response time of climate
to volcanic forcing and subsequent recovery time vary little with changes
in the size of the forcing. Response times for vegetation and soil carbon
are relatively consistent across forcings for each model. However, results
indicate that there is significant uncertainty concerning the response of
the carbon cycle to volcanic eruptions. Suggestions for future research
directed at reducing this uncertainty are given.

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