I haven't read the book yet, but any idea why western civilization is singled out here for collapse and everyone else survives AGW/SRM effects? Fiction indeed. Greg
>________________________________ > From: David Lewis <[email protected]> >To: [email protected] >Cc: [email protected] >Sent: Thursday, August 7, 2014 9:32 AM >Subject: [geo] Re: 2. What are some potentially false 'memes' related to solar >geoengineering? > > > >Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway, in "The Collapse of Western Civilization" write >that you can heat a planet by starting and stopping SRM. I've never heard >this "meme" before, i.e. that merely starting and stopping SRM heats the >planet to a higher temperature than it would have reached had SRM never been >employed. > >They call the effect "termination shock". After the 4 year SRM project >described in the book is halted “temperature rapidly rebounded, regaining not >just the 0.4 degrees C that had been reduced during the project butan >additional 0.6 degrees”. They use this rapid 1 degree C temperature rise, >which they say happens in 18 months, as the trigger of a "fatal chain of >events" which ends Western Civilization. Permafrost melting doubles the total >carbon in the atmosphere in 10 years which drives planetary temperature upward >an additional 5 degrees C, the West Antarctic ice collapses, Greenland ice >slides into the sea, the Black Death reappears and kills half the population >of Europe, etc. Mayhem ensues. Survivors of this collapse of civilization >are then threatened with a "runaway greenhouse" which "would have followed", >unless..... > >Oreskes, when interviewed in WBUR "On Point" promoting the book, said: "This >is a work of fiction, but it has footnotes". She also says: "Absolutely >everything that happens in the book is based on scientific data and >projections" > >The source Oreskes and Conway cite in support of their idea is Climate >Engineering and the risk of rapid climate change by Ross and Matthews. That >paper does not support the Oreskes/Conway idea. Ross and Matthews find that >in all model runs, at all times the temperature of the planet is lower where >SRM is started and stopped than in runs where it is never employed at all. > > > >2b. Why do you suspect the correctness of that meme? >> >> >>2c. (optional) Can you provide a citation or a link to where someone is >>assuming the meme is true? >> >> >>Thoughtful responses would be most appreciated. If you want to start >>discussion about a meme, please do so in a separate thread so that this >>thread can be easily used to develop a list. >> >> >>Thanks, >> >> >>Ken >> >> >>_______________ >>Ken Caldeira >> >>Carnegie Institution for Science >>Dept of Global Ecology >> >>260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA >> >>+1 650 704 7212 kcal...@ carnegiescience.eduhttp://dge.stanford.edu/labs/ >>caldeiralab >>https://twitter.com/ KenCaldeira >> >> >>Assistant: Dawn Ross <[email protected]> >> >> >> >> >> >-- >You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >"geoengineering" group. >To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >email to [email protected]. >To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. >For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. > > > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
