http://theenergycollective.com/noahdeich/2179186/carbon-budget-overshoot-and-implications-carbon-dioxide-removal-field

Carbon Budget Overshoot and the Implications for the Carbon Dioxide Removal
Field

Posted January 10, 2015

Keywords: Carbon and De-carbonization, Energy
Security, Sustainability, Utilities, Coal, Environmental
Policy,Cleantech, Oil, Public Health, Risk Management, Energy, Energy and
Economy, Fuels, News, carbon budget, carbon capture and storage
(ccs), carbon dioxide removal (cdr)

This past November, the UNEP released the 2014 edition of their annual
“Emissions Gap Report,” which highlighted the important role that carbon
dioxide removal (“CDR”) solutions are likely to play in preventing climate
change.

In particular, the UNEP report finds that the global economy has come
precariously close to going “over-budget” on CO2 emissions — that is,
humans are on track to emit more CO2 into the atmosphere than the planet
can handle without warming significantly. If we do overshoot our carbon
“budget” in the next several decades, the only way to return atmospheric
CO2 concentrations to levels that avoid climate change will be to deploy
large-scale CDR projects capable of generating net “negative” emissions:

The UNEP report notes a large caveat associated with these overshoot
scenarios, namely that:

“although scenarios routinely assume a substantial amount of
global negative emissions, the feasibility of these assumptions still needs
to be explored.”

To put this another way, many overshoot scenarios assume large-scale CDR
deployments, but we currently do not have any CDR technologies that are
proven in their ability to remove large amounts of CO2 from the
atmosphere.In many regards, planning to overshoot our carbon budget before
developing scaleable CDR solutions is like planning to jump out of a
plane before learning how to work a parachute: it is possible to figure out
how to operate a parachute on the way down, but it is much more prudent to
jump only after learning how to operate it.

And the UNEP report repeatedly advises readers of the benefits of avoiding
overshoot scenarios if possible:“taking more action now [to reduce GHG
emissions] reduces the need for taking more extreme action later to stay
within the 2 °C limit.”and:“the quicker emissions are reduced now, the less
society will be dependent on negative emissions later”

(paragraphs removed)

So with our carbon “budget” rapidly dwindling, it is increasingly clear
that now is the time to accelerate both GHG emissions reduction
activities andresearch and development of CDR solutions. In other words, we
are about to reach the edge of our carbon budget, so we have no time to
lose in developing a “CDR parachute…”

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