. . . but never a mention of marine cloud brightening.
Stephen
Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design. School of Engineering.
University of Edinburgh. Mayfield Road. Edinburgh EH9 3JL. Scotland
[email protected] Tel +44 (0)131 650 5704 Cell 07795 203 195
WWW.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs YouTube Jamie Taylor Power for Change
On 03/02/2015 09:23, Andrew Lockley wrote:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901114002421
ScienceDirect
Environmental Science & Policy
April 2015, Vol.48:67–76, doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2014.12.014
Is there room for geoengineering in the optimal climate policy mix?
Olivier Bahn
Marc Chesney
Anca Claudia Pana
Highlights
•We investigate the optimal policy mix for dealing with climate change.
•We consider jointly mitigation, adaptation, and solar radiation
management (SRM).
•SRM can control temperature, but brings environmental side-effects.
•SRM is not robust due to uncertainty in magnitude and persistency of
side-effects.
•Implementing SRM with wrong assumptions about side-effects largely
decreases welfare.
Abstract
We investigate geoengineering as a possible substitute for mitigation
and adaptation measures to address climate change. Relying on an
integrated assessment model, we distinguish between the effects of
solar radiation management (SRM) on atmospheric temperature levels and
its side-effects on the environment. The optimal climate portfolio is
a mix of mitigation, adaptation, and SRM. When accounting for
uncertainty in the magnitude of SRM side-effects and their persistency
over time, we show that the SRM option lacks robustness. We then
analyse the welfare consequences of basing the SRM decision on wrong
assumptions about its side-effects, and show that total output losses
are considerable and increase with the error horizon. This reinforces
the need to balance the policy portfolio in favour of mitigation.
JEL classification - Q43Q48Q54Q58
Keywords
Climate change
Integrated assessment
Adaptation
Mitigation
Geoengineering
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