There has been a lot of publicity recently about my comments on the CIA
and geoengineering. Fortunately, /The Guardian/ asked me to write an
op-ed to give me a chance to explain my views using my own words.
Unfortunately, they chose an inflammatory title, but please read the
content.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/17/cia-controlling-climate-geoengineering-climate-change
[includes links to some of the items in the text]
*The CIA asked me about controlling the climate -- this is why we should
worry* [I did not write this title or subtitle.]
/Geoengineering has many risks, and we don't yet know the CIA's
intentions. But given the lack of political will on climate change, we
have to look at it /
Alan Robock
Tuesday 17 February 2015 11.35 EST
On January 19, 2011, I got a phone call from two men who told me they
were consultants for the CIA. Roger Lueken and Michael Canes, analysts
for the Logistics Management Institute, asked, among other things, "If
another country were trying to control our climate, would we be able to
detect it?"
I told them that I thought we could, because if a cloud in the
stratosphere were created (the most commonly proposed method of control)
that was thick enough, large enough, and long-lasting enough to change
the amount of energy reaching Earth, we could certainly see it with the
same ground-based and satellite instruments we use to measure
stratospheric clouds from volcanic eruptions. If, on the other hand, low
clouds were being brightened over the ocean (another suggested means of
cooling the climate), we could see telltale patterns in the tops of the
clouds with satellite photos. And it would also be easy to observe
aeroplanes or ships injecting gases or particles into the atmosphere.
Spy agencies fund climate research in hunt for weather weapon, scientist
fears
At the same time, I wondered whether they also wanted to know if others
would know about it, if the CIA was controlling the world's climate.
Given that the CIA is a major sponsor of the recently released US
National Academy of Sciences (NAS) reports on geoengineering (which they
have renamed "climate intervention"), the question arises as to the
possible interest of the CIA in global climate control.
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Let me be clear. I completely agree with all the NAS findings. Global
warming is real and is being caused by humans, mainly by burning coal,
oil, petrol and natural gas, which puts carbon dioxide -- a greenhouse
gas -- into the atmosphere. Global warming will result in major harm to
humanity if left unchecked. The solution is to stop using fossil fuels
for our energy supply and switch to solar and wind power, and to adapt
to some of the coming climate change.
Geoengineering by blocking sunlight should not be implemented now, as
its risks and benefits are too uncertain, but we need more research on
the various proposed scenarios. Taking carbon dioxide out of the air is
a good thing, but currently extremely expensive, and we need research on
that, too.
The 2014 US Quadrennial Defense Review makes clear that climate change
poses a major threat to the US and the rest of the world. It says: "The
pressures caused by climate change will influence resource competition
while placing additional burdens on economies, societies, and governance
institutions around the world. These effects are threat multipliers that
will aggravate stressors abroad such as poverty, environmental
degradation, political instability, and social tensions -- conditions
that can enable terrorist activity and other forms of violence."
Certainly it is the job of the US military and the CIA to help protect
our country from such threats, and it is not surprising that the CIA is
interested to learn about geoengineering. In fact, the CIA opened a
Center on Climate Change and National Security in 2009. When it was
forced by Congress to close it in 2012, it said they would continue
working on these issues anyway.
Can the CIA weaponise the weather?
Whether you see the role of the CIA in climate change as nefarious or
protective depends on how you weigh evidence with your preconceived
notions. There is a long history of weather and climate control being
proposed for military purposes, as described brilliantly in the 2010
book by James Fleming, Fixing the Sky, but there is no evidence the CIA
is doing anything wrong on this issue. I know of no way to control local
or regional climate with geoengineering without effects elsewhere, but
while it is possible that such techniques could be developed by
research, geoengineering for hostile purposes is prohibited by the
United Nations Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other
Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques.
I don't want to be working on geoengineering. But I don't yet see the
political will in the world to address global warming. If the US
enhances its research efforts on geoengineering, we will learn about
both the potential risks and benefits of its implementation, so that
future policymakers will be able to make informed decisions, and not
hasty ones in a panic if confronted by environmental dangers.
My recent work lists five potential benefits and 26 potential risks of
stratospheric geoengineering, and the number one benefit -- if
stratospheric geoengineering is possible at all (an important research
question) -- is that it could cool the planet, reversing some of the
dangers of global warming. But will we ever be able to overcome the
governance and ethical issues?
Thus further research is urgently needed. In the meantime, we need to
vigorously move to a carbon-free energy system.
--
Alan
Alan Robock, Distinguished Professor
Editor, Reviews of Geophysics
Director, Meteorology Undergraduate Program
Department of Environmental Sciences Phone: +1-848-932-5751
Rutgers University Fax: +1-732-932-8644
14 College Farm Road E-mail: [email protected]
New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8551 USA http://envsci.rutgers.edu/~robock
http://twitter.com/AlanRobock
Watch my 18 min TEDx talk at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsrEk1oZ-54
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