In most geoengineering models, the primary outputs are typically
temperature and precipitation. The result of this is that these outputs
receive an undue focus in discussion, particularly in general literature.
We've all seen the "shock horror, geoengineering will cause drought"
headlines in the general media.

This problem with this approach is that it's completely divorced from the
real impact. Many studies have shown increased water efficiency of plants
in a high CO2 world, so there's less precipitation required per unit of
NPP. This is now pretty much established scientific fact, AFAIK. The
consequence of this is that precipitation simply doesn't matter as much as
is implied by the focus on precipitation/temperature in models.

Should we therefore be moving towards using NPP, or surface runoff, as a
more appropriate model output?

I'd appreciate comment from others with expertise in these matters.

Thanks

Andrew

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