http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1715523D
Climate Impacts of Stratopsheric Particle Injection
Authors:
Driscoll, Simon; Osprey, Scott; Grainger, Don; Gray, Lesley
EGU General Assembly 2015,
04/2015
There is an obvious need for methods to verify the accuracy of
geoengineering given no observations of a geoengineering programme.
Accordingly, the ability of Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 climate models
to reproduce the observed response of volcanic eruptions is analysed.
Models are shown to be unable to produce the major observed Northern
Hemisphere dynamical response to tropical volcanic eruptions which is noted
as a cause for concern of the accuracy of geoengineering simulations.
Simulations are then performed with the HadGEM2 climate model (HadGEM2-L38)
and its enhanced stratospheric resolution counterpart (HadGEM2-L60). The
HadGEM2-L60 model is shown to reproduce a response substantially closer to
that observed than HadGEM2-L38 and mechanisms behind the response are
analysed and explained. With the HadGEM2-L60 model shown to be
substantially better in reproducing the observed dynamical response to
volcanic eruptions, simulations of GeoMIP's G4 scenario are performed.
Simulated asymmetries between the immediate onset and immediate cessation
('termination') of geoengineering are analysed. Whilst a rapid large
increase in stratospheric sulphate aerosols (such as from volcanic
eruptions) can cause substantial damage, most volcanic eruptions in general
are not catastrophic. One may therefore suspect that an 'equal but
opposite' change in radiative forcing from termination may therefore not be
catastrophic, if the climatic response is simulated to be symmetric.
HadGEM2 simulations reveal a substantially more rapid change in variables
such as near-surface temperature and precipitation following termination
than the onset, indicating that termination may be substantially more
damaging and even catastrophic.
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