Poster's note : potentially relevant to SAI direct injection plumes, and to
cloud modifications

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JD023491/full

The Microphysical Pathway to Contrail Formation - Kärcher - 2015 - JGR:
Atmospheres - Wiley

Abstract

A conceptual framework to predict microphysical and optical properties of
contrail particles within a wingspan behind the source aircraft is
developed. Results from two decades of contrail observations and numerical
simulations are reviewed forming the basis of theoretical model
development. The model utilizes cloud theory applied to the dynamics and
thermodynamics of jet aircraft exhaust plumes in upper tropospheric
conditions. Droplet nuclei include soot particles emitted from aircraft
engines and atmospheric particles entrained into the plume. These precursor
particles activate into copious homogeneously freezing water droplets as
the plume relative humidity rises beyond liquid water saturation. A
unimodal size spectrum of ice particles develops wherein ice particles grow
to μm mean sizes. Contrail particle formation is analyzed over a wide range
of soot emissions relating to conventional jet fuels as well as to
alternative aviation fuels producing much less soot and volatile particle
emissions. For current aviation fuels and propulsion technology, the number
of contrail ice particles scales roughly in proportion to the number of
emitted soot particles that act as water condensation nuclei despite their
poor hygroscopicity. Close tothe contrail formation threshold, only few
plume particles can be water-activated and freeze. Implications for effects
of alternative fuels on contrails, an arena for future scientific
exploration, are outlined

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