http://www.nature.com/articles/nenergy201511

Nature Energy

Learning through a portfolio of carbon capture and storage demonstration
projects

Perspective

Learning through a portfolio of carbon capture and storage demonstration
projects
David M. Reiner

Nature Energy 1, Article number: 15011 (2016)
doi:10.1038/nenergy.2015.11

Received:27 November 2015

Abstract

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology is considered by many
to be an essential route to meet climate mitigation targets in the power
and industrial sectors. Deploying CCS technologies globally will first
require a portfolio of large-scale demonstration projects. These first
projects should assist learning by diversity, learning by replication,
de-risking the technologies and developing viable business models. From
2005 to 2009, optimism about the pace of CCS rollout led to mutually
independent efforts in the European Union, North America and Australia to
assemble portfolios of projects. Since 2009, only a few of these many
project proposals remain viable, but the initial rationales for
demonstration have not been revisited in the face of changing
circumstances. Here I argue that learning is now both more difficult and
more important given the slow pace of deployment. Developing a more
coordinated global portfolio will facilitate learning across projects and
may determine whether CCS ever emerges from the demonstration phase.

Economic models deem rapid wide-scale deployment of CCS in the next few
years to be essential in restraining the costs of meeting the 2 °C target
for global temperature1,2, but CCS technologies are still at the pilot and
demonstration phase. Paradoxically, it is primarily the costs of the early
demonstration projects that have hampered further deployment. As each CCS
‘demonstration’ plant costs on the order of US$1 billion, during a time of
fiscal austerity it has proved difficult to justify public support.
Near-term pressure to develop CCS has also eased as most countries found it
easier to meet their Kyoto targets because of the economic crisis (and
other factors such as the US shale gas revolution). Meanwhile, unlocking
private financing remains elusive and depends on developing necessary
legal, institutional and commercial frameworks, as well as significant cost
reductions and de-risking that can only come from operating multiple
plants3.

Difficulties in justifying pilot and demonstration plants or deployment
policy are hardly restricted to CCS, and can be found for nuclear power,
renewables and indeed virtually any novel technology4,5, but the emphasis
on demonstration is most common in the process industries6. At its
broadest, CCS ‘demonstration’ has been identified as having a dozen or more
manifestations, ranging from discourse creation to coalition formation7. I
acknowledge the many important dimensions of demonstration, indeed,
different disciplines have radically different conceptions of the nature of
demonstration6. Given the overwhelming government and industry focus on
cost reduction8,9, however, I use this as a test of how learning is
operationalized. Governments should at least be able to construct a
portfolio of projects along the dimension that they deem as central to the
enterprise of demonstration.

The technical rationales for demonstrations being large-scale include
understanding power system reliability and performance10 and adequately
characterizing each geological formation11. As large-scale projects must
store roughly 1 million tCO2 per year10,11, this scale requirement poses a
number of challenges when seeking to learn from multiple projects.

In this Perspective, I explore the history of CCS demonstration in an
effort to understand how the initial optimism about large-scale rollout led
to multiple, uncoordinated efforts to learn from diversity. In the absence
of widespread deployment of CCS, the projects that have endured do not form
a coherent programme aimed at learning. Going forward, therefore, any
effort to successfully re-launch CCS at scale will need to revisit the
fundamental case for demonstration, including how best to derive the most
learning from the billions of dollars already invested and that will need
to be invested in the next wave of projects. There is a need for greater
clarity over what time frame, at what scale, at what cost and to what end
CCS demonstration is being pursued12.

Great expectations for CCS

CCS technologies have long faced the challenge of wanting to be seen, on
the one hand, as novel technologies that warrant public support and, on the
other, as a well-established set of technologies that should reassure
investors (including governments) that the first plants can be viable at
commercial scale (∼300 MW capacity)13. In some respects, CCS as a suite of
component technologies is indeed hardly novel. Each element in the chain
has a long history — Statoil's Sleipner project has been storing a million
tonnes of CO2 a year in the Utsira field under the North Sea since 199614;
CO2 has been shipped hundreds of kilometres from natural sources in
Colorado for use in enhanced oil recovery operations in west Texas for over
thirty years15; and CO2 has been separated from natural gas and hydrogen
since 1930 and hundreds of plants worldwide currently remove CO2 at a range
of scales up to 40 MW (ref. 16).

The first large-scale CCS power project was proposed by BP at Peterhead in
200217. Yet, only in late 2014 did Boundary Dam in Saskatchewan become the
first fully integrated CCS power project that incorporates capture,
transport and storage. The owner of the 120 MW unit, SaskPower, has claimed
that it would be able to reduce costs by 20–30% for the next unit at the
same plant18.

CCS first emerged on the international agenda at the Gleneagles G8 summit
in Scotland in 2005, leading to a programme of work for the International
Energy Agency (IEA) and to several countries seeking to roll out CCS
technologies. In that same year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) produced a Special Report on CCS to review the state of
knowledge10. During this period of optimism through to 2009, the European
Union, Canada (or rather, Alberta), Australia and the United States each
developed their own sets of criteria that would guide the deployment of a
portfolio of projects. The different nations' proposals are summarized
in Box 1.

Box 1: National ambitions for CCS.

Driven by aspiration for rapid wide-scale deployment, there was a
competition in rhetorical ambition. In March 2007, European leaders issued
a declaration calling for up to 12 CCS demonstration power projects to be
in operation by 2015 and launched the EU Technology Platform for Zero
Emission Fossil Fuel Power Plants (ZEP). This aim was amended to 10–12
projects by 2020 and envisaged 80–120 commercial CCS projects by 2030 in
the EU alone54.

In parallel, Norway also committed to taking the lead on CCS technology,
and in 2006, Prime Minister Stoltenberg described CCS as their “moon
landing” with a pledge to capture 100,000 tonnes a year at the Mongstad
refinery on a pilot basis and then scale that up to 2 million tonnes a year
after five years55.

Other countries also signalled their ambitions. The United States proposed
the US$1 billion Futuregen project in 2003, which would have been a 275 MW
integrated gasification combined cycle plant in Illinois, followed in 2009
by stimulus spending pledges of over US$3 billion on a range of projects.
The Canadian government offered C$650 million for large-scale CCS projects,
supplemented by C$1.3 billion from the Government of Alberta. Apart from
project support, Australian Prime Minister Rudd pledged A$100 million per
annum over four years for a Global CCS Institute. In 2007, the British
government offered £1 billion in capital support (and the promise to cover
higher operating expenditures) as part of a competition for a coal-fired
post-combustion project, which was to be followed by three further CCS
plants. Other major countries actively investigating large-scale CCS
projects (with differing degrees of state and private interest) included
the Netherlands, Germany, France, Poland, Spain, Italy and Romania as well
as developing countries including China, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and UAE.

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Although countries pledged significant sums at the time, there was an
obvious disconnect between the envisaged role that CCS could play in
keeping global temperature rise below 2 °C and the reality of government
budgets and the legal, regulatory, commercial and technical challenges of
deploying dozens or even hundreds of new billion-dollar power plants within
a decade or two. The ambitious IEA 2009 technology roadmap imagined 100
plants by 2020 and 3,000 by 2050 with required investments of US$5–6
billion per year between 2010 and 2020, with roughly two-thirds of the
investment coming in developed countries19. Even in 2009, given the slow
pace of developing large infrastructure in most advanced economies, the
proximity of 2020 did not offer much opportunity for a rollout where there
would be much learning from one project to the next.

The key question is how best to learn. Research and development on CCS is
seen as having one of the highest median returns20, which begs the question
of why and when to demonstrate CCS options relative to continued R&D. CCS
faces unproven business models and sceptical investors, novel technology
integration challenges and the need to deliver at a commercial scale while
still at the demonstration phase21.

Principles of demonstration

To establish a set of criteria, it is necessary to ask basic questions
about the nature of any demonstration program. Some of the many possible
objectives cited include: speed of deployment22, value for money,
industrial policy and learning potential. As we shall see, each of the
first three objectives can ultimately be understood in terms of learning
potential (or uncertainty reduction)6.

Ultimately, given its higher costs, CCS will need a sustained high carbon
price and/or a binding technology mandate, but first an effective
demonstration is needed to convince investors (including governments) to
support CCS in the near term and ahead of other competing technologies such
as nuclear power or renewables with storage, Thus, the eventual speed of
deployment will not depend on sheer number of projects but the success of
learning at the demonstration phase.

Providing cost competition will help improve the value proposition, but
‘value for money’ is meaningless without a clear understanding of ‘value’.
Individual demonstration plants can be assessed in terms of carbon abated
(or avoided) per unit cost, but if that was truly the objective, then many
other technologies would offer both better value and greater certainty. At
the demonstration stage at least, the chief value is in either revealing
technology performance relative to expectations or other technologies
(learning from diversity)23 or demonstrating potential cost reductions at
later stages (learning from replication)24. Thus, a technology shown to be
capable of saving 30% for the next unit will be of superior value to one
leading to minimal saving potential or significant cost overruns25.

Much like basic R&D, demonstration requires tolerance of failure26. At the
scales discussed (∼300 MW or 1 million tCO2 stored), the stakes are high
and costly early failures may reduce support for the technology.
Governments or regulators will want to impose budgetary constraints or
otherwise protect consumers from cost overruns, but the nature of
demonstration implies the need to assume some risk by identifying
innovative technologies that might have a higher potential for learning27.

Finally, national priorities such as industrial policy or energy security
are put forward as justifications for CCS28,29. Similar to both previous
propositions though, CCS will only deliver large-scale industrial
redevelopment or a significant share in the energy mix if it can
demonstrate that costs are reasonable and can be driven down further.
Lowering CCS costs is essential in trade-exposed sectors such as steel,
chemicals or cement where producers have a credible threat of shifting
production abroad, unlike fixed assets such as power plants30.

Given the focus on cost considerations, I largely neglect the important
subject of social learning12 and restrict the discussion of learning
potential to learning from diversity, which seeks validation of the main
available technological options, and learning from replication or
learning-by-doing. There are important trade-offs and complementarities
between the two. Replication assumes a degree of clarity regarding where to
place resources in the hope of driving down costs, whereas investments in
diversity implies a spreading of bets in the hopes of resolving
uncertainties31.

Replication has been (and is) particularly important for technologies such
as solar photovoltaics or wind, which has seen costs fall dramatically as
millions of kW-scale units have been produced32,33. In contrast, CCS
projects are ‘lumpy’, insofar as each project is on the 100 MW scale and up
and there is still the danger of technology lock-out or lock-in34,​35,​36.
Learning may not be stable and may vary over time37,38. In the near-term
therefore, priority should be on learning from diversity. But soon there
will be a need to balance replication in the form of second- or
third-of-a-kind demonstration, which will provide better assessment of cost
reduction potential, against the benefits from investing in new
technologies that may offer longer-term breakthroughs or benefits that may
be cut off by a too-early focus on replication.

Recognizing the cost of even single plants, there have been calls for
greater international coordination. Principles have been outlined39 for a
world-wide demonstration program including laudable goals such as global
coordination to enable a variety of CCS technologies to be demonstrated in
various contexts and countries, greater exchange of information and more
effective communication. But most challenging is the aim of cost-sharing to
pool global demonstration funds. Independent national approaches inevitably
produce inefficiency and barriers to learning, but the potential for a
global cost-sharing mechanism is easier to imagine for ‘big science’
projects such as ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) or
LHC (Large Hadron Collider), rather than projects primarily developed by
industry and aiming to be commercial within a decade40. Instead, a focus on
fewer countries, nonbinding mechanisms, and greater use of review
procedures can help facilitate more effective agreements41.

Past efforts to develop portfolios of CCS projects

Although learning about costs was incorporated into the portfolios of CCS
projects, they also added other, less clearly defined objectives or
priorities, in many cases seeming to create more of a wish list that
balanced out different constituencies rather than a clearly crafted set of
principles that would produce a CCS rollout at least cost. Figure
1 presents a timeline of the most advanced demonstration projects and Box
2 summarizes the different national efforts.

Figure 1: Timeline of major CCS demonstration projects.

There have been projects that have captured, transported and/or stored
CO2 for many decades, but I include here only integrated capture, transport
and storage projects that were conceived as CCS projects. I do not include
the many projects that have been announced but which never received
significant government and/or industry support. Gas processing projects
have largely been driven by regulatory requirements such as the carbon tax
in Norway or being associated with profitable liquefied natural gas (LNG)
enterprises as in Australia. Industrial projects refer to projects in
energy-intensive industrial sectors including steel, cement, fertilizer and
refineries. For reference, I also include major reports and cross-national
initiatives. Project data is largely drawn from the MIT CCS Project
Database (https://sequestration.mit.edu/tools/projects), supplemented by
individual project websites and media reports.

Full size image

Box 2: National CCS programmes.

USA. US$3.4 billion has been designated for CCS largely via economic
stimulus spending: US$1.5 billion for industrial CCS projects on a
competitive basis, US$800 million for the Clean Coal Power Initiative
(CCPI), and US$1 billion for FutureGen. In 2009 the US Government
Accountability Office compared the original and restructured FutureGen
projects in the US and suggested more attention instead be paid to the
competitive process adopted by CCPI to demonstrate advanced coal-based
power generation technology in multiple projects at commercial scale56.
CCPI selection criteria included: a minimum scale (0.3 Mt per year) and
capture efficiency, demonstrating significant progress with “less than 10%
increase in electricity costs”, using domestic coal, and the private sector
providing at least half the funding.

Australia. The government pledged A$2 billion (US$1.65 billion) for
demonstration projects. The Low Emissions Technology Demonstration Fund
(LETDF) was a A$500 million support scheme that sought to fund CCS
demonstrations plus other novel forms of low-carbon energy. In its first
round, LETDF sought to support four fossil-fuel projects (three coal and
one natural gas) as well as a large-scale solar concentrator. LETDF applied
five ‘merit’ criteria: potential to reduce emissions over the longer term,
support government's policy and program initiatives, leverage greater
non-Australian-government investment, demonstrate value for money, and
address any significant barriers or risks for the project.

Alberta. In 2008, Alberta undertook a similar exercise and initially sought
3–5 operating projects at a cost of C$2 billion. The government of Alberta
wanted a total portfolio that added up to 5 MtCO2 yr−1 by 2015, including a
minimum project threshold of 500,000 tCO2 yr−1. Each project was to be
fully integrated and at least one would store more than 1 MtCO2yr−1. In
terms of capture and storage options, at least one would provide direct
storage (for example, in a deep saline formation) rather than enhanced oil
recovery, at least one retrofit and one new build, at least one electric
power application, at least one oil-sand application and at least one
‘other’ application.

European Union. In October 2007, the EU ZEP technology platform described
the manifold goals of the EU flagship program including over-optimistic
objectives such as “demonstrate Europe's leading-edge technology and spur
action by other countries” (notably India, China and the US), as well as
objectives that relate back to the principles of demonstration listed in
the main text, such as ensuring “a diverse geographical and technological
spread of projects” (learning from diversity) and accelerating cost
discovery (learning from replication)54. Fourteen portfolio criteria were
presented, which can be grouped by diversity: (i) storage option: depleted
oil and gas fields, deep saline aquifers, onshore and offshore; (ii)
capture technology: pre-combustion, post-combustion and oxy-fuel; (iii)
fuel: hard coal, lignite, gas, co-fired biomass; (iv) transportation mode:
ship, cross-border pipeline; and (v) new build and retrofit.

The portfolio was also meant to include a project in an emerging economy
and at least one non-power project, all of which would test efficiency,
geography and commercial structures. Some of these criteria, notably
learning from diversity in capture technology, are critical to the fate of
CCS, but others simply reflect a subset of the many possible permutations
in developing CCS projects and would not, in themselves, significantly
contribute to cost reductions or de-risking.

Following initial support of €1.05 billion for six projects via stimulus
spending in 2009, support was to be operationalized through the NER300
program, which would auction 300 million emissions allowances (EUAs) set
aside as part of the New Entrant Reserve (NER). At the time of its launch,
EUA prices hovered around €15 per tonne of CO2, which would have yielded
almost €5 billion in available funds, primarily for CCS. Launched in
November 2010, the European program was expected to co-fund eight CCS
projects: one to three for each capture technology, at least three in
depleted oil and gas reservoirs, and at least three in saline formations.

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What is striking about each set of criteria is, on the one hand, their
ambition and comprehensiveness, and on the other, their independent
formulation and seeming lack of coordination in development. Even if all
projects had been successful, more coordination would have been warranted
to improve the likelihood of genuine learning from diversity and to help
reassure investors regarding technology cost.

Reflecting the ambition of the time, Fig. 2 illustrates a scenario22 in
which where there would be a ‘first tranche’ of demonstrations through
2015, a ‘second tranche’ driven by commercial and regulatory drivers from
2015 to the early-2020s and a global CCS rollout beginning in 2025.
Updating this vision, I have added a rough schematic of what the actual
deployment of CCS projects has looked like. The past decade has delivered a
‘first tranche’ much smaller in scale and lasting much longer than
originally anticipated. Given a roughly ten-year lead time for any projects
not currently in the pipeline, the real question post-2025 is how much the
next generation of projects will benefit from learning and whether there is
any realistic possibility of radical innovation and rapid diffusion43,44.

Figure 2: An updated model for CCS demonstration and deployment.

The current rollout has fallen far short of aspirations. The dashed green
and red curves show two anticipated tranches of projects, leading to a
rapid global rollout (solid purple line). Instead, the solid green curve
shows the very few plants that have come into service to date or that are
in the pipeline. If costs remain high then several other demonstration
plants will be built, but there will be no large-scale rollout (dashed blue
line). If learning of 20–30%, such as that claimed for Boundary Dam, can be
extended, then there is a chance that, with a lag, there will be a global
rollout as envisaged in the 2013 IEA roadmap42 but following a more
traditional logistic technology deployment curve (dashed purple line).
Figure adapted from ref. 22, Elsevier.

Full size image

The need for learning from diversity is acute. A comprehensive study45 of
the current status of CCS costs concludes that although there have been
some relative shifts between technologies, the “range of mitigation costs
[…] show considerable overlap”, leading to the same conclusion as a decade
earlier in the IPCC report10 over the inability to pick winners.

Post-2009 progress and roadmaps

The 2009 IEA CCS roadmap19 had highlighted the need to develop 100 CCS
projects over 2010–2020, storing around 300 MtCO2 yr−1 based on a global
spend of US$5–6 billion per year, whereas by 2013, four operational
projects and nine projects under construction were expected to store some
13 MtCO2 yr−1 by 2016, with a spend of some US$10 billion between 2007 and
2012. Instead of 100 plants, the 2013 IEA roadmap called for “upwards of 30
operating CCS plants”, with a greater emphasis on the importance of
developing countries and of industrial applications42. Still, given the
proximity to 2020 and the current status of project funding around the
world, this is an ambitious target.

Many of the proposals shown in Fig. 1failed because of tepid or shifting
government (and industry) support or because of genuine technical
challenges and escalating costs encountered along the way, whereas other
projects have soldiered on. In Norway, the costs of Technology Centre
Mongstad spiralled almost fourfold above initial estimates leading to an
investigation by the Auditor General and the Norwegian government shutting
down the project and withdrawing from plans to move beyond the pilot phase.

In Alberta, Shell proceeded with a final investment decision on the Quest
project in the oil sands on a zero net-present-value basis (a decision few
other companies could or would be willing to carry on their balance sheet),
and began operations in late 2015. The Alberta Carbon Trunk Line project is
to begin in 2016, operating at a small fraction of the pipeline's
capacity46. Other projects, such as the Pioneer power project, proved too
costly to proceed.

In Australia, the ZeroGen project was cancelled by the Queensland
government owing to cost concerns and a lack of viable CO2 storage options,
but the Gorgon project will capture 3.5–4 million tCO2 beginning in 2017
(largely because CCS was included as part of the package to allow the
lucrative liquefied natural gas facility to be sited on Barrow Island
rather than onshore). Moreover, the South West Hub project in Western
Australia and the CarbonNet network project in Victoria (both of which are
ambitious pipeline projects) survived the climate-sceptical Abbott
government, which was vocally hostile to CCS, because they were able to
sustain moderate levels of funding, but have not yet proceeded to final
investment decision.

In the United States, FutureGen 2.0, beset by delays and an impending
deadline to spend its stimulus funding, was cancelled in early 2015. The
582 MW integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant at Kemper County
in Mississippi is due to begin operations in 2016 after delays of several
years and costs spiralling to US$5.6 billion, above the US$2.4 billion cap
imposed by the state utilities commission. Once operational, it will be the
largest power CCS project and the first to use IGCC. Other successful
projects include two large industrial CCS projects at the ADM Decatur,
Illinois ethanol facility and the Port Arthur refinery.

The worst record is perhaps in the European Union. Apart from the global
financial crisis of 2009 reducing EU emissions, making it easier to meet
emissions targets and sapping government ambitions and finances, it was
also directly tied to the EU's main funding mechanism. Rather than raising
the anticipated €5 billion to support CCS, the EU Allowance price halved
and the NER300 yielded only €2.15 billion in funding. Moreover, the scope
was expanded to include innovative renewable technologies (IRTs) and €1
billion was raised in the first round in late 2012 for 24 IRTs in 16 member
states, but not a single CCS project47. This CCS–renewable split reflects
the breadth of support for renewables compared with CCS, which is only
being pursued seriously in a small number of EU member states.

Part of the reason for the lack of CCS projects was that the European
Commission based its rank ordering of projects on volume of CO2 avoided,
thereby favouring large coal projects48. The Don Valley Power Project, a
proposed 920 MW (gross) IGCC project, was ranked first overall by the
European Commission but did not even make the top four projects in the UK's
own competition. In the second round, €300 million was ultimately allocated
to the White Rose coal oxy-fuel project in the UK (along with an additional
€1 billion for 19 IRTs in 12 member states).

Until recently, the most advanced European projects were the two finalists
in the UK Commercialisation Competition, but that competition was
unexpectedly cancelled in late 2015. One residual learning benefit from
these projects (as well as the two projects in the previous failed
competition) is that the British government paid £100 million for detailed
front-end engineering design (FEED) studies, so these studies are now
available to future developers. Apart from the more basic problem of the
credibility of government commitment, the UK Commercialisation Competition
had limited the potential for learning by mandating that plants operate in
base load, thereby preventing learning about flexibility, which is one of
the key rationales for considering CCS relative to other low-carbon
technologies.

As European countries retrenched, there have been signs of a willingness to
fund across borders. For example, following German and Norwegian failures,
both countries seem willing to fund the Dutch ROAD project, which now
remains the most advanced CCS project in Europe, but which had been stalled
because of a funding shortfall49. Although hardly a model for international
cost-sharing, it is a first recognition of a need to move away from purely
national approaches.

Conclusions

The exuberance of 2005–2009 has been replaced with obituaries of the
technology50,51, but neither extreme reflects the more nuanced current
state of affairs52. Inevitably, CCS has been subject to a technology
hype-cycle26,53. The expectations of the earlier period in part reflected a
conflation of positive and normative assessments of technology rollouts,
that is, how many large-scale CCS plants it would be technically,
politically and commercially feasible to build versus how many plants would
be needed if the world is to have a hope of remaining on a trajectory that
would keep warming below 2 °C. Informed by the IEA and other analyses of
the urgency of large-scale CCS deployment, many believed that single
jurisdictions such as the EU or even Alberta could develop a sufficiently
large portfolio of projects such that concerns over wider coordination or
deep consideration of project timing, ordering and selection could be
largely disregarded.

As the pipeline of projects rapidly dissipated after 2009, it is perhaps
understandable that there has been an overwhelming focus on delivering what
was left rather than worrying about coordination and learning as some
projects were inevitably better than no projects. Still, for CCS to begin
to play a larger role in reality rather than simply in the models of future
deployment, it is imperative to finally begin to differentiate more and
less costly technologies. There are, of course, many competing principles
behind demonstration and cost differentiation is not in itself sufficient,
but given the scarcity of projects and the overwhelming emphasis on costs
by governments and industry, it is undoubtedly critical to whether CCS is
to emerge from its own ‘valley of death’.

The lack of CCS projects that have emerged may say more about the
seriousness with which nations have addressed climate change than about CCS
technologies per se. Concerns about cost reduction dominate the industry
and government views on how to proceed9, but there has been precious little
effort to revisit what constitutes an effective global portfolio in the
face of greatly diminished individual national efforts. Rather than
imagining some centrally conceived portfolio, there is a need for more
negotiation across jurisdictions and accounting for what is going on
elsewhere and learning from every stage of these other projects, both
foreign and domestic.

Having arrived at the current hodge-podge of projects by virtue of
decisions made in 2005–2009 in a completely different political and
economic context, there is now little guidance on what the next tranche of
projects should seek to accomplish. If China were to aim to build a
large-scale CCS project, should it choose a post-combustion coal project
similar to Boundary Dam (learning by replication) or a gas-fired
post-combustion or oxy-fuel coal plant (learning from diversity, assuming
the UK is not going ahead with its projects)? How might China best reflect
on what is needed globally and explicitly take into account projects in
Canada, USA, Australia, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere (thereby strengthening
international coordination)? Should greater emphasis be placed on learning
about plant flexibility to improve understanding about operations and help
de-risk the technology? Should it seek to demonstrate bioenergy plus CCS or
an industrial CCS hub (further broadening learning by diversity)?

Striking the balance between learning from diversity and learning from
replication will depend on finding ways to develop effective international
coordination mechanisms and account for timing (and the inevitable delays
and cancellations). There are no easy answers and the costs of each ‘bet’
are high, but there is an urgent need for opening a debate on the subject.

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