Hi All
Basic physics suggests that marine cloud brightening should increase the
strength of monsoons by cooling the sea more than the land. This might
oppose the stratospheric sulphur. Have the authors done anything on
this possibility?
Stephen
Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design. School of Engineering,
University of Edinburgh, Mayfield Road, Edinburgh EH9 3DW, Scotland
[email protected], Tel +44 (0)131 650 5704, Cell 07795 203 195,
WWW.homepages.ed.ac.uk/shs, YouTube Jamie Taylor Power for Change
On 19/04/2016 16:14, Andrew Lockley wrote:
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-016-3125-4
First online: 15 April 2016
Climate responses to volcanic eruptions assessed from observations and
CMIP5 multi-models
Seungmok Paik, Seung-Ki Min
Abstract
This study analyzes climate responses to four volcanic eruptions that
occurred since 1960s using observations (including reanalyses) and
CMIP5 multi-model simulations. Changes in surface air temperature,
specific humidity, and precipitation over the global land are examined
during pre- to post-eruption years using a composite analysis.
Observations exhibit consistent decreases in temperature, humidity,
and precipitation following eruptions, which are reasonably captured
by CMIP5 multi-models simulated including volcanic forcing. The
observed and simulated decreases in temperature and humidity are
stronger than the internal variability ranges (estimated from
pre-industrial control simulations), indicating robust responses. On
the other hand, the observed precipitation decrease is significant but
the CMIP5 models considerably underestimate it, as reported by
previous studies. In order to explore important physical processes
determining climate responses to volcanic forcing, a surface energy
budget is analyzed together with inter-model relationship between
variables. A strong inter-model correlation (r = 0.89) appears between
temperature and humidity, representing the Clausius–Clapeyron
relation. Interestingly, precipitation is found to be closely related
with latent heat flux (r = −0.50) and vertical motion (ω) at 500 hPa
level (r = −0.68), changes of which are also underestimated by models.
Further, by comparing estimates of precipitation minus evaporation
between land and ocean, which is significantly correlated with
vertical motion (r = −0.73), it is found that monsoon circulation
weakens after volcanic eruptions but CMIP5 models substantially
underestimate it. Our results suggest that this dynamic response via
monsoon circulation weakening can be a critical factor for models’
underestimation of precipitation reduction to volcanic forcing.
Keywords
Volcanic eruptions CMIP5 models Temperature Precipitation Surface
energy budget Vertical motion Monsoon circulation
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