http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11027-016-9723-y

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

The cost of stratospheric climate engineering revisited

Ryo Moriyama, Masahiro Sugiyama, Atsushi Kurosawa, Kooiti Masuda,
Kazuhiro Tsuzuki, Yuki Ishimoto

DOI: 10.1007/s11027-016-9723-y

Abstract

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) has been receiving increasing
attention as a possible option for climate engineering. Its direct cost is
perceived to be low, which has implications for international governance of
this emerging technology. Here, we critically synthesize previous estimates
of the underlying parameters and examine the total costs of SAI. It is
evident that there have been inconsistencies in some assumptions and the
application of overly optimistic parameter values in previous studies,
which have led to an overall underestimation of the cost of aircraft-based
SAI with sulfate aerosols. The annual cost of SAI to achieve cooling of
2 W/m2 could reach US$10 billion with newly designed aircraft, which
contrasts with the oft-quoted estimate of “a few billion dollars.” If
existing aircraft were used, the cost would be expected to increase
further. An SAI operation would be a large-scale engineering undertaking,
possibly requiring a fleet of approximately 1,000 aircraft, because of the
required high altitude of the injection. Therefore, because of its
significance, a more thorough investigation of the engineering aspects of
SAI and the associated uncertainties is warranted.

Keywords
Climate change Cost analysis Geoengineering Global warming Solar radiation
management

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