Yes I agree this paper is based on a dubious premise. In all likelihood the doubling rate of renewables will be the controlling factor.
There's going to be a slow start, a rapid transition, but then a tailing-off - as hard-to-switch uses (eg intercontinental flight) become dominant in carbon budgets Andrew On 24 Mar 2017 17:06, "Greg Rau" <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > http://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269/tab-pdf > > "...we propose framing the decarbonization challenge in terms of a global > decadal roadmap based on a simple heuristic—a “carbon law”—of halving gross > anthropogenic carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions every decade. Complemented by > immediately instigated, scalable carbon removal and efforts to ramp down > land-use CO2 emissions, this can lead to net-zero emissions around > mid-century, a path necessary to limit warming to well below 2°C." > > "We need urgent research to ascertain the resilience of remaining > biosphere carbon sinks (10). Strong financial impetus must be provided for > afforestation of degraded land and for establishment of no-regret > approaches to net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere—such as the > combination of second- and third-generation bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) or > direct air CCS (DACCS). Trials of sustainable sequestration schemes of the > order of 100 to 500 MtCO2/year should be well under way to resolve > deployment issues relating to food security, biodiversity preservation, > indigenous rights, and societal acceptance." > > GR - Seems unlikely we can halve emissions each decade, or that AR, BECSS > and DAC alone can take up the slack. So given the task and the risk of > failing, how is it that we have the luxury to ignore enhancing the sink > potential of the ocean - 70% of the Earth surface, half of the bio C cycle, > and half of the annual CO2 sink? Wouldn't this help "resolve [CDR] > deployment issues relating to food security, biodiversity preservation, > indigenous rights, and societal acceptance." See attached. > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
