Our response in *The Guardian*, just published today
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/29/criticism-harvard-solar-geoengineering-research-distorted>
.

Cheers,
Gernot


Fear of solar geoengineering is healthy – but don't distort our research

Models suggest solar geoengineering could reduce climate change and our
independently assessed studies are vital to understanding its full potential
[image: Sunrise over Pacific Ocean]
<https://viewer.gutools.co.uk/proxy/preview/environment/2017/mar/29/criticism-harvard-solar-geoengineering-research-distorted#img-1>“The
amount of material we would release is tiny... For example, if we tested
sulphates, we would put less material into the stratosphere than a typical
commercial aircraft does in one minute.” Photograph: ISS/Nasa

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David W Keith and Gernot Wagner

Tuesday 28 March 2017 17.15 BST

Even if the world were to cut emissions to zero tomorrow, global
temperatures and sea levels would rise for decades
<https://viewer.gutools.co.uk/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/aug/15/climate-urgency-weve-locked-in-more-global-warming-than-people-realize>.
If our roll of the climate dice is unlucky <http://www.climateshock.org/>,
they could rise for centuries. It is in this context that some climate
researchers have begun to reluctantly take seriously ideas first proposed
<http://keith.seas.harvard.edu/publications/geoengineering-climate-history-and-prospect>
in
the 1960s: the possibility of using solar geoengineering to help restore
the world’s climate, alongside aggressive actions to reduce greenhouse-gas
(GHG) emissions to zero and below.

Fear of solar geoengineering is entirely healthy
<http://mashable.com/2016/09/11/solar-geoengineering-is-necessary/>. Its
mere prospect might be hyped by fossil fuel interests to thwart emissions
cuts. It could be used by one or a few nations in a way that’s harmful to
many. There might be some yet undiscovered risk making the technology much
less effective in reality than the largely positive story told by computer
models.

Yet that healthy fear can distort discussion in unhealthy ways. A reader
glancing at recent coverage
<https://viewer.gutools.co.uk/environment/2017/mar/24/us-scientists-launch-worlds-biggest-solar-geoengineering-study>
in
the Guardian, especially a piece by Martin Lukacs
<https://viewer.gutools.co.uk/environment/true-north/2017/mar/27/trump-presidency-opens-door-to-planet-hacking-geoengineer-experiments>,
might assume we were capitalistic tools of Donald Trump, eager to
geoengineer the planet, democracy and justice be damned.

That reader might miss the fact that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) concluded that, “Models consistently suggest that [solar
geoengineering] would generally reduce climate differences compared to a
world with elevated GHG concentrations and no [solar geoengineering]”, or
that many scientists, including the UK Royal Society
<https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/publications/2009/geoengineering-climate/>
 and US National Academy
<http://www.nap.edu/catalog/18988/climate-intervention-reflecting-sunlight-to-cool-earth>,
support research. So do many environmentalists, including the Environmental
Defence Fund <https://www.edf.org/climate/our-position-geoengineering> and
the Natural Resources Defence Council
<https://www.nrdc.org/media/2015/150210>.

With all that in mind, we have begun to study solar geoengineering more
closely. The emphasis here is on study. It would be reckless to deploy
solar geoengineering based on today’s limited research.

What makes Harvard’s effort different is that we are planning on doing so
in anintegrated, multi-disciplinary programme
<http://geoengineering.environment.harvard.edu/> spanning many faculties
and points of view. That integrated programme is the context for a proposed
outdoor experiment.

Prof Frank Keutsch <http://chemistry.harvard.edu/people/frank-keutsch> and
one of us (Keith) are proposing to fly a balloon
<http://keith.seas.harvard.edu/publications/stratospheric-controlled-perturbation-experiment-scopex-small-scale-experiment>
about
20km into the air. Its objective is to quantify the microphysics of
introducing tiny particles into the stratosphere to improve estimates of
the risks and benefits of solar geoengineering in large atmospheric models.
It is not a “test” of planetary cooling. The amount of material we would
release is tiny compared to everyday activities. For example, if we tested
sulphates, we would put less material into the stratosphere than a typical
commercial aircraft does in one minute of flight. Our material of choice
for the first flight? Frozen water. Later flights might include tiny
amounts of calcium carbonate <http://www.pnas.org/content/113/52/14910.full> or
indeed sulphates.

That said, we do not ask anyone to take our word about the safety or legal
compliance of the experiment. Risk must be independently assessed, and
legal compliance assured, or we will not fly.

Governance of experiments is currently inadequate. To that end, we are
seeking advice from Janos Pasztor’s Carnegie Climate Geoengineering
Governance Initiative <http://www.c2g2.net/>, major environmental NGOs, and
various other civil society organisations to develop an independent
advisory process for the experiment. It’s a bootstrap process with the goal
of fostering international governance for future experiments. Crucially, we
will only proceed with the experiment if doing so does not imperil the
long-term ability to develop a solar geoengineering research programme with
broad public and stakeholder support.

Facts matter, or at least they should. Friday’s Guardian article
<https://viewer.gutools.co.uk/environment/2017/mar/24/us-scientists-launch-worlds-biggest-solar-geoengineering-study>
implied
that the experiment is funded by Bill Gates, but it is not. Gates will in
future likely fund the interdisciplinary solar geoengineering research
program at Harvard, but his funding will amount to less than 40% of the
total, and this experiment is not funded by him. Other funders already
include the Hewlett foundation, itself among the largest funders of climate
research and advocacy. (Our public forum
<http://geoengineering.environment.harvard.edu/Forum-US-Solar-Geoengineering-Research-DC-March-2017>this
past Friday, in turn, was funded by the Sloan foundation.) It is possible
that the broader programme will end up supporting the experiment in later
years, but at least through the first flights, the experiment is funded by
internal Harvard research funds given to new professors.

Martin Lukacs’s analysis piece
<https://viewer.gutools.co.uk/environment/true-north/2017/mar/27/trump-presidency-opens-door-to-planet-hacking-geoengineer-experiments>
is
in an entirely different league. It comes after a similarly biased piece
four years ago
<https://viewer.gutools.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/17/us-geoengineers-spray-sun-balloon>,
which severely distorted our proposed experiment. The current piece hypes a
link to Trump, but if Trump were to push solar geoengineering while gutting
climate science, we believe the only appropriate response is active
resistance.

Fear of solar geoengineering is justified. So is fear of the largely
unaccounted-fortail risks
<https://academic.oup.com/reep/article-abstract/9/2/304/1624418/Reflections-Managing-Uncertain-Climates-Some>
of
climate change, which make the problem much worse than most realise. Ending
fossil fuels will not eliminate climate risks, it just stops the increase
of atmospheric carbon. That carbon and its climate risk cannot be wished
away.

There is a prudent case for an international, transparent, and sustainable
solar geoengineering research programme that includes field experiments
with appropriate governance. We welcome
<http://geoengineering.environment.harvard.edu/Forum-US-Solar-Geoengineering-Research-DC-March-2017>
debate
on the merits of such a research programme.

   - David Keith <http://keith.seas.harvard.edu/> is professor of applied
   physics and professor of public policy at Harvard and author of A Case
   for Climate Engineering
   <http://keith.seas.harvard.edu/a-case-climate-engineering> (MIT Press,
   2013).
   - Gernot Wagner <http://gwagner.com/> is research associate and lecturer
   at Harvard and co-author of Climate Shock
<http://www.climateshock.org/> (Princeton
   University Press, 2015).


*Gernot Wagner, Harvard University*
gwagner.com

*Climate Shock*
*, a Top 15 FT McKinsey Business Book of the Year 2015, now also Austria’s
Natural Science Book of the Year 2017*climateshock.org
<http://www.climateshock.org/>

On Wed, Mar 29, 2017 at 5:38 AM, Andrew Lockley <[email protected]>
wrote:

> Comments I've seen suggest that article is churnalism, based on an ETC PR,
> with little fact checking. The scopex experiment was long-planned.
>
> A
>
>
> On 29 Mar 2017 06:37, "Greg Rau" <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/true-north/2017/mar/
> 27/trump-presidency-opens-door-to-planet-hacking-geoengineer-experiments
>
> "While geoengineering received little favour under Obama, high-level
> officials within the Trump administration have been long-time advocates for
> planetary-scale manipulation of Earth systems.
>
> "David Schnare, an architect of Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency
> transition, has lobbied the US government and testified to Senate in favour
> of federal support for geoengineering.
>
> "He has called for a multi-phase plan to fund research and conduct
> real-world testing within 18 months, deploy massive stratospheric spraying
> three years after, and continue spraying for a century, a duration
> geoengineers believe would be necessary to dial back the planet’s
> temperature."
> ….
> “Clearly parts of the Trump administration are very willing to open the
> door to reckless schemes like David Keith’s, and may well have quietly
> given the nod to open-air experiments,” said Silvia Riberio, with
> technology watchdog ETC Group. “Worryingly, geoengineering may emerge as
> this administration’s preferred approach to global warming. In their view,
> building a big beautiful wall of sulphate in the sky could be a perfect
> excuse to allow uncontrolled fossil fuel extraction. We need to be
> focussing on radical emissions cuts, not dangerous and unjust technofixes.”"
>
> GR:  I'm confused -  if global warming is a Chinese hoax*, why is Trump et
> al interested in countering it? Perhaps if you apply enough alternate facts
> you eventually get back to the truth?
> * https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/19/world/asia/china-trump-cl
> imate-change.html?_r=0
>
>
>
>
>
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